人工智能与增加值贸易网络地位提升——兼论技术距离的调节效应  

Artificial Intelligence and Value-added Trade Network Position Improvement——On the Moderating Effect of Technology Distance

作　　者：周宏伟 庞素勤 刘曙光[3] ZHOU Hongwei;PANG Suqin;LIU Shuguang(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin,300110;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,Hubei,430074;School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong,266100)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300110 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2025年第1期78-99,共22页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下的海洋强国建设方略研究”(18VSJ067);中国工程科技发展战略山东研究院咨询研究项目“山东与日韩科技合作战略研究”(202002SDZD02)。

摘　　要：以人工智能为代表的新一轮科技革命是中国实现高水平对外开放和贸易高质量发展的重要依托。本文构建了人工智能影响增加值贸易网络地位的理论机制,利用2005—2018年45个国家制造业数据进行实证检验,同时分析技术距离的调节效应。研究结果显示:人工智能显著提升了增加值贸易网络地位;人工智能对发达国家和发展中国家的增加值贸易网络地位均具有显著的提升效应,但对发展中国家的提升效应更强;相对于劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业,人工智能对技术密集型行业增加值贸易网络地位的提升效应更为显著;人工智能对内资企业和外资企业的增加值贸易网络地位均具有显著的提升效应,但对外资企业的提升效应更强。机制检验显示,人工智能主要通过加速劳动力替代和释放国内消费潜力促进增加值贸易网络地位提升。拓展性分析表明,人工智能对增加值贸易网络地位的正向影响并不存在“低端锁定”效应,但会受到技术距离的负向调节,且该调节效应在发达国家、资本密集型行业和内资企业中更强。This paper formed a theoretical mechanism on how AI influenced the status of value-added trade network.Through empirical tests using manufacturing data spanning the period 2005 to 2018 across 45 nations,the study further analyzed the moderating effect of technological distance.The study finds that AI significantly enhances the status of valueadded trade networks.Specifically,AI has a significant upgrading effect on the value-added trade network status of both developed and developing countries,with a stronger effect observed in developing countries.At the same time,compared with labor-and capital-intensive industries,AI demonstrates a better upgrading effect on the value-added trade network status within technology-intensive industries.Besides,AI shows a notable upgrading effect on the value-added trade network status of both domestically-funded and foreignfunded enterprises.However,AI demonstrates a stronger upgrading effect on foreign-funded enterprises.The mechanism test reveals that AI primarily promotes the value-added trade network status through accelerating labor substitution and unleashing domestic consumption potential.The expansion analysis shows that the positive impact of AI on the status of value-added trade network does not have the effect of"low-end lock-in".However,it is negatively moderated by technological distance,and the moderating effect is stronger in developed countries,capital-intensive industries and domestically-funded enterprises.

关 键 词：人工智能 增加值贸易 网络地位 技术距离 调节效应 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F414