Representative CO_(2)emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2℃ target  

作　　者：Han-Tang PENG Da ZHANG Jun-Ting ZHONG Li-Feng GUO Si-Yue GUO Jun-Ling HUANG De-Ying WANG Chang-Hong MIAO Xi-Liang ZHANG Xiao-Ye ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Tsinghua University-China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-carbon Transformation Strategy,Beijing 10084,China [2]Institute of Energy,Environment&Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [3]Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality,Henan University,Zhengzhou 450001,China [4]Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of China Meteorological Administration(CMA),State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [5]International Clean Energy Research Office,China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2024年第6期1096-1106,共11页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(42341202,72140005,and 42090030);the China Three Gorges Corporation research project(202303160);the Hainan Institute of National Park grant(KY-23ZK01).

摘　　要：China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.It is essential to develop representative CO_(2)emissions pathways at the provincial level that align with the national target to facilitate effective policy implementation and scientific research.To address inconsistencies between provincial aggregate emissions and national estimates,this study compares the 2021 CO_(2)emissions estimates of China's provinces from the bottom‒up emissions factor method and the top‒down atmospheric CO_(2)concentration inversion method.We find that these methods yield comparable results for the emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes at the provincial level.Based on a review of existing research on CO_(2)pathways for China's provinces,we propose a set of representative pathways for China's provinces.These pathways align with past practices of allocating national emissions intensity reduction targets to provinces and are consistent with the national Tsinghua‒CMA pathway.The proposed pathways require provinces to sequentially peak their emissions by 2030,followed by rapid emissions reduction.Compared to a reference scenario without the carbon neutrality target,these pathways would incur an estimated cumulative GDP loss of about 1%between 2020 and 2060.However,there are notable regional variations,with some regions in the northwest potentially experiencing higher economic growth due to the availability of high-quality low-carbon resources.We recommend that China enhance provincial-level CO_(2)emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom‒up and top‒down methods.Additionally,careful consideration should be given to aligning provincial targets with national and global commitments when updating pathways toward carbon neutrality.

关 键 词：CO_(2)emissions accounting Emissions pathway Carbon neutrality 2℃target 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]