An integrated assessment of technological pathways and socioeconomic impacts for sustainable power system transition in Indonesia  

作　　者：Widodo Wahyu PURWANTO Djoni HARTONO Akhmad Herman YUNOWO Heri HERMAANSYAH Nadhilah REYSELIANI Ahmad SYAUQI Rosa Citra APRILIA 

机构地区：[1]Sustainable Energy Systems and Policy Research Cluster,Universitas Indonesia,Depok 16424,Indonesia [2]Department of Chemical Engineering,Faculty of Engineering,Universitas Indonesia,Depok 16424,Indonesia [3]Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Business,Universitas Indonesia,Depok 16424,Indonesia [4]Institute for Energy Transition,Faculty of Engineering,Universitas Indonesia,Depok 16424,Indonesia [5]Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering,Faculty of Engineering,Universitas Indonesia,Depok 16424,Indonesia

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2024年第6期1107-1120,共14页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：This study was funded by the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation(Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan)under the Memorandum of Agreement Numbers PKS-1/DKEU/2022 and 113/PKS/FT/UI/2022.

摘　　要：The energy transition has unique and profound socioeconomic impacts for the developing and coal-producing countries,due to the distinctive country's characteristics.The overall development context and challenges comprising technological pathways,investment,value added,employment and inequality must be considered.For the case of Indonesia,as one of the world's largest coal-producing,the archipelagic nature with various island topography,sociocultural diversity as well as very high population really needs a comprehensive energy transition research considering the above aspects,which is so far still lacking.Therefore,this current study presents an integrated assessment of technological change and socioeconomics impact for power transition pathways in Indonesia using the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System(TIMES)and their socioeconomics implications using the Miyazawa Input–Output Model(MIOM).Four scenarios were applied namely business-as-usual(BAU),100%renewable energy(100%RE),Paris Agreement 1.5℃ without coal phase-out(PA1.5),and that of with coal phase-out(PA1.5PO).The results show that by 2060,100%RE without applying carbon capture and storage(CCS)creates an extreme power flexibility which requires ample energy storage but does not attain net-zero.To meet the 1.5℃ carbon budget,PA1.5 and PA1.5PO require substantial renewable energy deployment,particularly in utility-scale solar PV,energy storage,and low-carbon technologies.These two scenarios exhibit a notable increase in total installed capacity,ranging 3.37–3.83 times higher than the BAU scenario.PA1.5PO,plays an increasing role natural gas as bridge fuel in advanced gas power from 2035 to its peak in 2050.PA scenarios require a higher installed capacity compared to BAU,corresponding to a substantial total investment cost of almost 2.5 times in 2060.The MIOM results show that these scenarios have a stronger impact on household income and employment compared to BAU.However,the impact on value added(VA)only surpasses BAU until 2045,specifically in the PA1.5PO s

关 键 词：Energy transition Power sector TIMES model Socioeconomic impacts Miyazawa input-output model Indonesia 

分 类 号：F416.61[经济管理—产业经济]