天津市建筑集中供热需求评估方法及应用  

Evaluation Method and Application of Central Heating Demand for Buildings in Tianjin

作　　者：王娜 牛浩 孙郁文 杨光[1] 刘扬[1] 张润丰[1] 张丁戈 侯冠杰 WANG Na;NIU Hao;SUN Yuwen;YANG Guang;LIU Yang;ZHANG Runfeng;ZHANG Dingge;HOU Guanjie(Tianjin Jin’an Thermal Power Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300204,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市津安热电有限公司,天津300204

出　　处：《建筑节能(中英文)》2025年第1期82-88,共7页Building Energy Efficiency

摘　　要：集中供热通常存在过量供热、供热不足、供热故障等问题,其实际运行的监测数据与建筑供热需求存在差异。精准掌握建筑供热需求能够为集中供热用能诊断、优化管理和低碳运行提供必要支撑。面向供需平衡,基于天津市大范围供热数据分析及典型建筑测试,建立建筑供热需求与供热监测数据、建筑热工性能、室内温度、停供率等因素的关联模型,为天津市集中供热需求评估提供量化方法。结果表明,模型针对建筑供热需求的评估误差(MAPE)能够控制在10%以内;天津市一步节能、二步节能建筑中,存在供热不足的建筑数量占比分别为69%和56%;三步节能和四步节能建筑中,存在过量供热(或较大供热损失)问题的建筑数量占比分别为63%和67%,建筑节能等级越高,过量供热问题越突出。District heating encounters issues such as overheating,underheating,and breakdowns,which cause discrepancies between the actual monitoring data of its operation and the demand for building heating.Accurately assessing the demand for building heating can offer essential support for centralized heating energy diagnosis,optimization,and carbon reduction.This article is based on the analysis of large-scale heating data and typical building tests in Tianjin,and develops a correlation model between building heating demand and various factors such as heating monitoring data,building thermal performance,indoor temperature,shutdown rate,etc.,providing a quantitative method for evaluating centralized heating demand in Tianjin.The results show that the evaluation error of the model for building heating demand can be kept within 10%;The proportion of buildings with insufficient heating in Tianjin’s one-step and two-step energy-saving buildings is 69%and 56%,respectively;In the three-step and four-step energy-saving buildings,the proportion of buildings with excessive heating is 63%and 67%,respectively.The higher the energy-saving level of the building,the more prominent the problem of excessive heating.

关 键 词：集中供热 热工性能 供热需求 监测 评估 

分 类 号：TU83[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]