低碳全球化下中国进出口贸易的隐含碳演变趋势及调控优化策略  

Evolution Characteristics and Regulation Optimization of China's Cross-Boder Trade Network under Low-Carbon Globalization

作　　者：韩梦瑶 孙紫荻 Han Mengyao;Sun Zidi

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国地质大学,武汉430074

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2025年第1期144-155,共12页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘双碳’目标对中国跨境贸易网络的重塑及转型风险防范研究”(22CJY020)。

摘　　要：在低碳全球化趋势下,中国现阶段的出口结构仍然以高碳行业为主,其进出口隐含碳排放不容忽视,合理优化贸易布局是中国优化进出口贸易结构及应对风险的有效措施。结合全球贸易隐含碳研究结果,力求刻画全球贸易隐含碳时空演变格局,对比不同情景下中国隐含碳转移的趋势差异,解析不同情景下中国高碳行业的贸易风险,主要结论如下:全球主要国家之间的贸易额呈现增长态势,其中印度、墨西哥等新兴经济体在全球贸易中的地位逐渐提升;中国出口隐含碳的总量和规模相较进口变化幅度大,隐含碳主要出口国仍为美国、日本、德国、韩国等发达国家;基准情景下中国各行业隐含碳排放强度均呈现下降趋势,欧盟碳边境调节税的实施对中国高碳行业产出和对外贸易结构产生较大程度冲击,并导致中国出口贸易呈现缩减的倾向;“一带一路”经贸合作的增强对中国行业结构和进出口贸易结构的调整产生正向影响,对出口隐含碳的减排起到促进作用。Under the trend of low-carbon globalization, China's export structure at the present stage is still dominated by carbon-intensive industries, necessitating significant attention to embodied carbon emissions in both imports and exports. Rational optimization of trade layout represents an effective measure for China to refine its import and export trade structure and deal with risks. Drawing upon research on embodied carbon in global trade, this paper endeavors to delineate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of embodied carbon in global trade, contrast the divergent trends of China's embodied carbon transfers under distinct scenarios and conduct an in-depth analysis of the trade risks faced by China's carbon-intensive industries under these distinct scenarios. The main conclusions are as follows: The trade volume among major countries in the world showed a growing trend,among which the status of emerging economies such as India and Mexico in global trade was gradually improving. The magnitude of variation in the total volume and scale of China's embodied carbon exports, as compared to those of its imports, was notably substantial. Notably, the primary export destinations for China's embodied carbon continued to be developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. Under the baseline scenario, the embodied carbon emission intensity of all industries in China shows a downward trend. The implementation of the EU CBAM has significantly impacted the output of China's carbon-intensive industries and the structure of its foreign trade, resulting in a tendency towards a reduction in China's export trade. The enhancement of the economic and trade cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative has a positive impact on the adjustment of China's industry structure and import and export trade structure, and at the same time promotes the emission reduction of export embodied carbon.

关 键 词：低碳全球化 进出口贸易 投入产出法 隐含碳排放 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]