我国城镇职工退休行为的合理性评价研究--基于健康异质性的视角  

Evaluation of Chinese Urban Employees'Retirement Behavior Rationality:From the Perspective of Health Heterogeneity

作　　者：张琳琳 张乐平 张力[1] Zhang Linlin;Zhang Leping;Zhang Li

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院 [2]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第12期123-135,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：上海市白玉兰人才计划浦江项目“中国老龄化背景下最优渐进式延迟退休方案的设计与可行性研究”(23PJC019);上海市晨光计划项目“基于金融支持化解养老金缺口的方案设计与效益分析--以人口老龄化为背景”(21CGA05);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“基金管理规模的最优性和适度性研究:基于市场多方制衡的理论与实证”(72203043)。

摘　　要：老龄化加剧、法定退休年龄与实际平均退休年龄过低等因素都会加重劳动力供给和财政支付的负担。为此,本文在深入考察对退休行为起决定性作用的健康异质性问题的基础上,建立了识别居民退休行为是否合理的评价方程,并对我国城镇职工退休选择行为的合理性进行评判。结果发现,42.89%的城镇职工采取非合理性退休行为,其中高达27.97%的职工属于“健康早退”人群。若政府采取有效措施使得“健康早退”人群不提前退休,则会缓解因人口老龄化导致的劳动力供给紧张和财政支付压力。本文为退休行为的合理性评价、“健康早退”现象的识别和判断提供了简单可行的量化方法,且据此给出的人口老龄化应对方案兼具及时性和实用性。Factors such as the aging population,the low legal retirement age and actual average retirement age will increase the burden on labor supply and fiscal payment.Based on the examination of the health heterogeneity that plays a decisive role in retirement behavior,this paper establishes an evaluation equation to identify whether the individual's retirement behavior is reasonable,thereby evaluating the rationality of the retirement behavior of urban employees in China.The main conclusions are as follows:42.89%of urban employees retire irrationally,and 27.97%of them choose early retirement in good health.If the government takes effective measures to prevent the early-retired population from retiring early,the labor supply tension and financial payment pressure caused by population aging will be alleviated.This paper provides a simple and feasible quantitative method for evaluating the rationality of retirement behavior,identifying and judging early retirement in good health,and based on this,proposes a timely and practical way to deal with population aging.

关 键 词：退休行为 合理性评价 健康异质性 健康早退 人口老龄化 

分 类 号：F249.21[经济管理—劳动经济] C924.24[经济管理—国民经济]