黄河流域上游干旱区河流水文情势变化研究——以祖厉河为例  

Changes in hydrological regime of rivers in the arid region of the upper Yellow River basin--a case study of the Zuli River

作　　者：魏智 魏银璐 刘世华 吴锦奎 Wei Zhi;Wei Yinlu;Liu Shihua;Wu Jinkui

机构地区：[1]甘肃省白银市河道管理站,白银730900 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州730000 [3]北京航空航天大学数学学院,北京102206 [4]上海财经大学数学学院,上海200433 [5]甘肃省白银市水旱灾害防治中心,白银730900

出　　处：《中国水利》2025年第3期43-49,共7页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771084);甘肃省气象局科研项目(Ms2020-11)。

摘　　要：祖厉河是黄河上游干旱半干旱区重要一级支流,其年最大洪峰流量能够反馈黄河上游环境变化,是防洪安全和雨洪资源利用中的关键因子。依据祖厉河干流3个水文站1957—2020年共64年的实测水文资料,基于水文统计、t检验、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Morlet小波理论等数学分析方法,分析了流域年最大洪峰流量的时空差异、变化程度、突变性和周期性时域特征。结果表明:祖厉河流域年最大洪峰流量总体呈减小趋势,进入21世纪后出现显著(P>0.1)至极显著(P>0.05)变化,上、中、下游年变化倾向率分别为-5.0 m3/s、-6.4 m3/s和-10.5 m3/s。其变差系数CV值、年最大洪峰流量模数随洪水发生的累积频率增大和流域面积增加而逐渐减小,变幅在80%~88%之间。祖厉河流域年最大洪峰流量变化可划分为Ⅰ—振荡期(1957—2000年)、Ⅱ—显著期(2001—2020年),流域上、中、下游突变点均出现在21世纪初期的10年。流域年最大洪峰流量在20世纪曾存在10~12年主周期,之后没有明显且稳定的主周期,但存在4~8年较规整的小周期变化。流域气温升高、汛期降水量减少,以及土地利用类型演变等条件变化,改变了洪水发生的频次和量级。The Zuli River is an important first-order tributary in the semi-arid to arid region of the upper Yellow River.Its annual maximum flood flow(AMFF)reflects environmental changes in and serves as a key factor in flood control and storm water resource utilization.Based on 64 years(1957-2020)of observed hydrological data from three hydrological stations along the main stream of the Zuli River,this study employs hydrological statistics,t-tests,Mann-Kendall non-parametric tests,and Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the spatial and temporal variations,change magnitude,abrupt changes,and periodic characteristics of the AMFF.The results indicate that the AMFF in the Zuli River basin shows a decreasing trend overall,with significant(P>0.1)to highly significant(P>0.05)changes observed after the 21st century.The annual change rates in the upper,middle,and lower reaches are-5.0 m3/s,-6.4 m3/s,and-10.5 m3/s,respectively.The coefficient of variation(CV)and the modulus of the AMFF decrease with increasing cumulative frequency of flood occurrences and basin area,with variations ranging between 80%and 88%.The changes in AMFF can be divided into two periods:Ⅰ-Oscillation Period(1957-2000)andⅡ-Significant Change Period(2001-2020),with abrupt change points occurring in the first decade of the 21st century across the upper,middle,and lower reaches.In the 20th century,there was a main cycle of 10~12 years for the AMFF;thereafter,no obvious and stable main CHINA WATER RESOURCES 2025.3 cycles were observed,but regular shorter cycles of 4~8 years existed.Changes in conditions such as rising temperatures,decreased precipitation during the flood season,and land use evolution have altered the frequency and magnitude of flood events.

关 键 词：祖厉河流域 水文情势 年最大洪峰流量 黄河上游 干旱区 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]