基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的杭州市土地利用多情景模拟  

Multi-scenario simulation analysis of land use change in Hangzhou using the SD-PLUS model

作　　者：蔚芳 蒋雨薇 WEI Fang;JIANG Yuwei(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Center for Balance Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,杭州310058 [2]浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心,杭州310058

出　　处：《农业资源与环境学报》2025年第1期44-56,共13页Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment

基　　金：浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心资助项目(A2221044a)。

摘　　要：气候变化威胁全球粮食安全并造成土地退化和荒漠化,反之土地系统问题又成为气候变化的驱动因素。为探讨在气候变化背景下如何合理配置土地资源,本研究基于2020年IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)发布的共享经济路径(SSPs)与典型浓度路径(RCPs)耦合的SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候情景,构建并验证了综合考虑社会经济因素及气候变化因素的SDPLUS耦合模型,以2000—2020年为历史数据,模拟了2030年杭州市三种气候情景下的土地利用变化。结果表明:SD模型预测误差在5%以内,PLUS模型模拟结果Kappa系数为0.84,总体精度为0.93,SD-PLUS耦合模型能够较为精确地反映土地利用变化情况。三种情景下土地利用变化整体上呈现生态用地向耕地和建设用地转移,但仍存在差异性:SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景生态用地在临安区、富阳等中心城区周边地区转移为建设用地,SSP5-8.5情景变化最为激烈,建设用地大幅扩张了608.94 km^(2);只有SSP1-2.6情景下建设用地在各市区中心周边有序扩张,生态用地减少得到控制。SSP1-2.6情景下,保护生态用地能够有效避免建设用地无序扩张,提升土地利用效率,实现区域均衡发展。研究表明,基于气候变化背景的SD-PLUS耦合模型能够有效模拟不同气候情景下杭州市土地利用空间格局的变化趋势,研究结果可为杭州市未来经济发展与生态保护区域协同提供科学支撑。Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security and contributes to land degradation and desertification.Concurrently,land system issues emerge as one of the drivers of climate change.This study aims to investigate strategies for optimizing the allocation of land resources in the context of climate change.Utilizing climate scenario data from SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,coupled with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)released by the IPCC in 2020,we have developed and validated the SD-PLUS coupled model.This model integrates socio-economic and climate change factors,and simulates three climate scenarios in Hangzhou for 2030,utilizing historical data from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that the SD model prediction error was within 5%,the Kappa of the PLUS model was 0.84,and overall accuracy was 0.93,indicating that the SDPLUS coupled model provides a more precise reflection of land use changes.Land use changes under the three scenarios exhibited distinct characteristics.Ecological land decreased under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,with forest and grassland transitioning to construction land,particularly in Lin′an District,Fuyang District,and areas bordering the central urban area.The most significant change was observed in the SSP5-8.5 scenario,marked by a substantial expansion of construction land by 608.94 km^(2).Only the SSP1-2.6 scenario demonstrated a systematic expansion of construction land around city centers,with a moderate decrease in ecological land.In the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the protection of ecological land effectively mitigated the uncontrolled expansion of construction land,enhanced land use efficiency,and fostered balanced ecological and economic development.In conclusion,the SD-PLUS coupled model skillfully simulated the spatial pattern of land use change in Hangzhou under different climate scenarios.The study findings offer valuable scientific insights to support the harmonization of future economic development and ecol

关 键 词：气候变化 SD-PLUS耦合模型 土地利用 SSP-RCP情景 多情景模拟 杭州市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] F224