福建省1990-2019年慢性肾脏病疾病负担的时间趋势和归因危险因素分析  

Temporal trends and attributable risk factors of chronic kidney disease burden in Fujian Province,1990-2019

作　　者：林修全[1] 林晓茹 杨成琳 王新钰 欧阳江[4] 管晴 黄少芬[1] 尹艳榕 梁栋[5] 钟文玲 Lin Xiuquan;Lin Xiaoru;Yang Chenglin;Wang Xinyu;Ouyang Jiang;Guan Qing;Huang Shaofen;Yin Yanrong;Liang Dong;Zhong Wenling(Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou 350000,China;School of Public Health,Fujian Medical University,Fuzhou 350000,China;School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361000,China;School of Public Health,Changsha Medical University,Changsha 410219,China;School of Health Management,Fujian Medical University,Fuzhou 350000,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省疾病预防控制中心慢性病防治研究室,福州350000 [2]福建医科大学公共卫生学院,福州350000 [3]厦门大学公共卫生学院,厦门361000 [4]长沙医学院公共卫生学院,长沙410219 [5]福建医科大学卫生管理学院,福州350000

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2025年第1期57-64,共8页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：福建省引导性项目(2020Y0060);福建省卫生健康科技计划(2020GGA026);福建省高校人文社会科学研究基地护理人文研究中心2023年开放课题(LLRW-202301);福建省民政政策理论研究重点委托课题(FMZD202303)。

摘　　要：目的掌握1990-2019年福建省慢性肾脏病(CKD)疾病负担及其归因危险因素。方法根据2019年全球疾病负担研究的方法,计算1990-2019年福建省CKD的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年(DALY)。采用年龄-时期-队列模型估计年龄、时期和队列对年龄标化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标化死亡率(ASMR)和年龄标化DALY率(ASDR)的影响。通过比较风险评估理论计算潜在危险因素的可归因DALY。结果2019年福建省ASIR高于全国平均水平,1990-2019年呈上升趋势。1990-2019年ASMR和ASDR均呈下降趋势。2019年福建省CKD的ASIR女性高于男性,ASMR和ASDR男性高于女性。年龄-时期-队列分析结果显示,福建省CKD的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR随年龄的增长而增加,ASIR的时期效应随年份的增加呈先下降后上升趋势,而ASMR和ASDR的时期效应呈波动趋势,ASIR的队列效应呈上升趋势,ASMR和ASDR的队列效应均呈先平稳后下降趋势。与1990年相比,2019年福建省CKD除归因于高BMI和高温的ASDR增加外,其余可归因危险因素的ASDR均下降,但归因于高钠饮食的ASDR仍高于全球平均水平。结论福建省CKD疾病负担仍较重,可通过改变高钠饮食、高BMI等归因危险因素来减轻福建省CKD疾病负担。Objective To understand the burden of chronic kidney disease(CKD)and its risk factors in Fujian Province during 1990-2019.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,the incidence rate,mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of CKD in Fujian from 1990 to 2019 were calculated.An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age,period,and cohort on age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)of CKD.Comparative risk assessment theory was used to calculate the potential attributable DALYs due to risk factors.ResultsIn 2019,the ASIR of CKD in Fujian exceeded the national average.The ASIR of CKD showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019,but the ASMR and ASDR of CKD exhibited decreasing trends during the same period.In 2019,the ASIR of CKD was higher in women than in men,while the ASMR and ASDR were higher in men than in women.Age-period-cohort analysis indicated that ASIR,ASMR,and ASDR of CKD increased with age.The period effect for ASIR decreased first before increase,while the period effect for ASMR and ASDR displayed fluctuating trends.The cohort effect showed an upward trajectory for ASIR,but a stable status before downward trajectories for ASMR and ASDR.Compared with 1990,except the increase in the ASDR of CKD attributed to high BMI and high temperatures,the ASDR of CKD attributed to other risk factors all showed decreases in 2019.However,the ASDR attributed to high sodium intake remained higher compared with the global average.ConclusionThe burden of CKD remains heavy in Fujian,and it is necessary to reduce the attributable risk factors,such as high sodium intake and high BMI,to address this problem.

关 键 词：慢性肾脏病 疾病负担 年龄-时期-队列模型 危险因素 

分 类 号：R692[医药卫生—泌尿科学]