基于贝叶斯MCMC与其他模型的紫外LED寿命预测  

Lifetime Prediction of UV LEDs Based on Bayesian MCMC and Other Models

作　　者：苗慧 郭伟玲[1] 刘梓元 王荣晶 Miao Hui;Guo Weiling;Liu Ziyuan;Wang Rongjing(Key Laboratory of Opto-Electronic Technology,Ministry of Education,College of Information Science and Technology,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学信息科学技术学院光电子技术教育部重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《光学学报》2024年第22期162-169,共8页Acta Optica Sinica

摘　　要：由于紫外发光二极管(LED)寿命较短,但随着其性能逐渐提升,需要选用合适的可靠性评价方法,而寿命预测则是可靠性评价方法中的关键环节。在环境温度为常温、电流为40mA的工作条件下,对AlGaN基紫外LED进行了8000 h的寿命实验,对样品辐射通量随时间500~3500h、500~4500h、500~5500h变化的实验数据进行指数模型拟合,对比分析得到失效寿命。采用贝叶斯MCMC法与幂函数模型预测紫外LED的寿命,给出了具体的幂函数与对数函数的模型公式。利用指数模型、贝叶斯MCMC算法、幂函数模型、对数函数模型对工作条件下的紫外LED进行寿命预测,寿命L70分别为5517、7041、6849、6219h。综合考虑,贝叶斯MCMC、幂函数模型拟合更加精确。Objective The ultraviolet light-emitting diode(UV LED)is a semiconductor device capable of emitting ultraviolet light,with the development history dating back to the 1960s.During the 1960s and 1970s,UV light sources primarily relied on traditional sources such as fluorescent lamps and xenon lamps,which were often bulky and featured high power consumption and short lifetimes,thus limiting their applications.As more people become aware of the dangers of mercury pollution,the United Nations Environment Programme adopted the Minamata Convention on Mercury in 2013,which aims to control and reduce mercury emissions globally.In 2016,this convention was approved at the 20th meeting of the Standing Committee of the Twelfth National People's Congress.Nowadays,UV LEDs emerge as a new generation of semiconductor lighting devices to replace mercury lamps and related mercury-containing products.With continuous performance improvements,UV LEDs are gradually expanding their application range and have been widely employed in fields such as drone aerial cameras,UV disinfection devices,light-curing equipment,and optical sensors.As LED technology progresses,ensuring the long-term reliable operation of UV LEDs necessitates the adoption of appropriate reliability evaluation methods.A critical aspect of these methods is lifetime prediction.Due to the unique mechanism of radiant flux decay in UV LEDs,which involves rapid initial decay followed by a gradual slowdown,there is currently no fixed standard for reliability evaluation methods.Methods Typically,the reliability evaluation methods for white LEDs are applied,but the mainstream lifetime prediction methods for white LEDs and the determination standards for certain parameters do not entirely suit UV LEDs.Therefore,we propose a lifetime prediction method for UV LEDs based on the Bayesian MCMC and other functional models,comparing it with the TM-21 exponential model to validate the method and accuracy of the proposed models.Our study involves conducting aging tests on UV LEDs,analyzing

关 键 词：光学器件 紫外发光二极管 寿命预测 贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法 幂函数模型 

分 类 号：TN364.2[电子电信—物理电子学]