云南气象衍生地质灾害的时空分布及其影响天气系统  

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Meteorological Derived Geological Disasters in Yunnan and Its Influence on Weather System

作　　者：刘博文 李华宏[1,3,4] 张万诚 牛法宝[3,4] 魏蕾 杨秦松[7] LIU Bowen;LI Huahong;ZHANG Wancheng;Niu Fabao;WEI Lei;YANG Qinsong(China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and Flood Monitoring and Early Warning in the Yangtze River of,CMA,Hubei 430205,China;Research Center for Disastrous Weather over Hengduan Mountains&Low-Latitude Plateau,CMA,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China;Meteorological Sciences Institute of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Institute of Geoenvironment Monitoring,Kunming 650216,China;31638 Unit of PLA,Kunming 650216,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室,湖北430205 [3]中国气象局横断山区(低纬高原)灾害性天气研究中心,昆明650034 [4]云南省气象台,昆明650034 [5]云南省气象科学研究所,昆明650034 [6]云南省地质环境监测院,昆明650216 [7]31638部队,昆明650000

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2024年第4期99-107,共9页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室项目(23SWQXZ008,23SWQXZ009);中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室项目(2023BHRY09);国家自然科学基金项目(42075013,41765003,41665005)。

摘　　要：选取云南省2011—2020年灾害普查数据,结合站点观测降水资料、NCEP再分析资料和云南气候年鉴,对云南气象衍生地质灾害的时空分布及其影响天气系统进行分析。结果表明:云南滑坡和泥石流灾害具有显著的年际变化和年内变化特征。滑坡灾害在滇西和滇西南地区为集中多发区,其次是滇东北和滇东,滇中地区为低发区。泥石流灾害主要集中在滇西北地区。汛期引发云南地质灾害的主要天气系统为切变线、两高辐合、南支槽、孟湾低压、西行台风和西南涡,其中切变线和两高辐合系统的影响最为显著。切变线附近有较明显的“鞍”型场环流,降水在切变线附近较为集中。两高辐合型可分为Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类,与切变线系统相比,两高辐合区内风场辐合强度稍弱,但系统影响范围更广、较稳定且移动速度慢,多造成持续性降雨,其较大的辐合区范围还导致强降水落区预报难度增大。Based on the disaster census data of Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2020,combined with site observation precipitation data,NCEP reanalysis data and Yunnan Climate Yearbook,the spatial and temporal distribution of meteorological-derived geological dis-asters and the influencing weather systems in Yunnan Province were analyzed.The results show that the landslide and debris flow dis-asters in Yunnan have significant inter-annual and intra-annual variation features.In the aspect of spatial distribution,landslide disasters are concentrated in western and southwestern Yunnan,followed by northeastern and eastern Yunnan,and central Yunnan is a low-incid-ence area,while debris flow disasters are concentrated in northwestern Yunnan.The main weather systems causing geological disasters in Yunnan during the flood season are shear line,two-high convergence,south branch trough,Bay of Bengal low,westward typhoon and southwest vortex,among which the influence of shear line and two-high convergence system is the most significant.An obvious“saddle”shaped field circulation is found near the shear line,and the precipitation is concentrated near the shear line.The two-high convergence type can be divided into type I and type II.Compared with the shear line system,the wind field convergence intensity in the two-high con-vergence zone is slightly weaker,but the system has a wider range of influence,is more stable and moves slowly,resulting in continuous rainfall.The larger convergence zone also makes it more difficult to predict the heavy rainfall area.

关 键 词：云南 地质灾害 时空特征 天气系统 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]