CMPAS降水融合产品在四川区域性暴雨过程监测中的质量评估  

Quality Assessment of CMPAS Precipitation Fusion Products in Regional Rainstorm Process Monitoring in Sichuan

作　　者：邓国卫[1,2] 孙俊 郭海燕 DENG Guowei;SUN Jun;GUO Haiyan(Sichuan Provincial Climate Centtre,Chengdu 610072,China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology,CMA,Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Centre,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,成都610072 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [3]四川省气象灾害防御技术中心,成都610072

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2024年第4期119-127,共9页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXZD202102);川藏铁路气象服务技术创新团队项目(西南气中[2022]4号)。

摘　　要：利用CMPAS三源降水融合产品和四川省5000余个气象观测站降水资料,采用要素误差分析、面向对象诊断空间检验等方法,对四川地区13次区域性暴雨过程的监测进行降水融合产品质量评估。结果表明:(1)融合产品对区域性暴雨过程小时降水监测的平均相对误差与实况降水波峰的多寡呈显著相关,每增加1个降水波峰可导致1 km、5 km融合产品平均相对误差分别增加1.2%、1.6%。(2)相较于5 km融合产品,1 km融合产品监测的区域性暴雨小时降水与实况降水的相关系数提升4%,偏差减小4%,平均绝对误差和均方根误差均减小40%;(3)降水融合产品对0.1~1.9 mm小时降水以高估为主,对≥5 mm小时降水以低估为主;(4)1 km、5 km融合产品对区域性暴雨过程的空间位置、走向、结构和范围等方面的监测具有较高精度。其中,1 km、5 km融合产品评估的区域性暴雨过程与实况降水的平均质心距离低于5 km,平均轴角差低于2°,离心率偏差介于0~0.12,平均面积比约为1.10。Based on the CMPAS three source precipitation fusion products and precipitation data of more than 5000 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province,the quality of precipitation fusion products was evaluated for the monitoring of 13 regional rainstorm pro-cesses in Sichuan by using element error analysis,method for object-based diagnostic evaluation and other methods.The results showed that:(1)The average relative error of the fusion products in hourly precipitation monitoring of regional rainstorm process was signific-antly related to the number of actual precipitation peaks.For each additional precipitation peak,the average relative errors of 1 km and 5 km fusion products increased by 1.2%and 1.6%,respectively.(2)Compared with the 5 km fusion product,the correlation coefficient between the hourly precipitation of regional rainstorm monitored by the 1 km fusion product and the actual precipitation increased by 4%,the deviation decreased by 4%,and the average absolute error and root mean square error decreased by 40%.(3)The precipitation fusion products mainly overestimated the hourly precipitation in the range of 0.1~1.9 mm and underestimated the hourly precipitation in the range of≥5 mm.(4)The 1 km and 5 km fusion products had high accuracy in monitoring the spatial position,trend,structure and scope of re-gional rainstorm processes.The average centroid distance between the regional rainstorm assessed by 1 km and 5 km fusion products and the actual precipitation was less than 5 km,the average axial angle difference was less than 2°,the eccentricity deviation was between 0 and 0.12,and the average area ratio was about 1.10.

关 键 词：区域性暴雨过程 降水融合产品 质量评估 四川 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]