南水北调中线涿州站冬季异常低温事件频次分析  

Frequency analysis on abnormal low-temperature events in winter at Zhuozhou Station on Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion

作　　者：李景刚 陈晓楠 赵慧 陈林举 LI Jinggang;CHEN Xiaonan;ZHAO Hui;CHEN Linju(China South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Corporation Limited,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南水北调集团中线有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《人民长江》2025年第1期97-103,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202505);水利青年科技英才资助项目(JHYC202207)。

摘　　要：为有效揭示南水北调中线工程冬季异常低温事件的发生规律,选取中线总干渠明渠段最北端冬季气温相对最低、冰情严重的涿州气象站为例,基于该站1981~2021年冬季日平均气温数据,在采用标准差阈值法对冬季异常低温事件进行定义和等级划分的基础上,对中线工程近年来的冬季异常低温事件频次变化规律进行了统计分析。结果表明:(1)进入12月份,涿州站日平均气温基本接近0℃,之后逐步降低;在12月下旬至次年的1月中旬,日平均气温达到年度最低,多年平均值基本维持在-4℃上下;而后逐步上升,在2月中旬前后基本恢复至0℃以上。(2) 1981~2021年间,涿州站共发生冬季异常低温事件31次,累计天数251 d,其中1980年代发生次数最多,其次是2000和2010年代,而1990年代发生次数最少,事件发生频次总体呈现下降趋势。(3)在冬季3个月中,1月份发生次数最多,次均发生天数也最长,12月份次之,而2月份发生次数最少,次均发生天数也最短,冬季异常低温事件发生日主要集中在12月下旬至1月上旬及1月中下旬。(4) 1981~2021年,涿州站冬季分别发生一级、二级、三级异常低温事件11,5,15次,其中,一级、三级事件在1月发生次数最多,而二级事件在1月发生次数最少。正式通水至2021年,中线工程共发生冬季异常低温事件3次,且均为三级,对冰期输水影响相对有限。研究成果可为南水北调中线工程冰期输水调度和冰凌灾害防御提供参考。To analyze the occurrence pattern of abnormal low-temperature events during winters in the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion,the Zhuozhou meteorological station was selected as a case study.The station is located at the northernmost end of the open channel section of the main canal and experiences relatively low winter temperatures and severe ice conditions.Utilizing the daily average temperature data of Zhuozhou Station from 1981 to 2021,winter abnormal low-temperature events were identified and classified using the standard deviation threshold method.A statistical analysis was performed to assess the frequency variation of these events over the past 41 years.The results indicated that:①The daily average temperature at Zhuozhou Station was near 0℃in December,gradually dropping thereafter.It reached the yearly low from late December to mid-January,averaging around-4℃.Subsequently,temperatures rose,returning to above 0℃by mid-February.②During 1981 to 2021,Zhuozhou Station experienced 31 abnormal low-temperature events,totaling 251 days.The 1980s had the highest frequency,followed by the 2000s and 2010s,with the 1990s having the lowest frequency.There was a decline in event frequency over time.③Among the winter months,January had the highest frequency and longest average occurrence days,followed by December,with the lowest frequency and shortest average occurrence days in February.Abnormal low-temperature events in winter mainly occurred from late December to early January and mid to late January.④From 1981 to 2021,Zhuozhou Station has encountered 11 Grade 1,5 Grade 2,and 15 Grade 3 abnormal low-temperature events during winter.Grade 1 and Grade 3 events were the most in January,while Grade 2 events were the least in that month.From the formal water supply of Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion to 2021,there were three Grade 3 abnormal low-temperature events in winter,which had a limited impact on water diversion during the glacial period.These research find

关 键 词：异常低温事件 频次变化 冰期输水 涿州站 南水北调中线工程 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程] P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]