2024年12月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,December 2024

作　　者：陆步来[1] 刘晓利 秦颖[3] 冯晔囡 彭质斌[3] 王大燕[4] 谢怡然[4] 任瑞琦 白文清 黎丹[1] 李利利[4] 施国庆[1] 向妮娟[1] 涂文校[1] Lu Bulai;Liu Xiaoli;Qin Ying;Feng Yenan;Peng Zhibin;Wang Dayan;Xie Yiran;Ren Ruiqi;Bai Wenqing;Li Dan;Li Lili;Shi Guoqing;Xiang Nijuan;Tu Wenxiao(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;School of Public Health,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang 261053,Shandong,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [2]山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东潍坊261053 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第12期1537-1540,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2024年12月在我国(不含香港地区、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果2024年12月突发公共卫生事件数可能与11月基本持平,以传染病类事件为主。当前急性呼吸道传染病呈现持续上升趋势,我国新型冠状病毒感染疫情近期仍处于低流行水平,预计12月疫情可能略有回升,但仍呈低水平流行可能性大。我国南、北方省份流感病毒检测阳性率上升,人感染禽流感疫情存在散发以及小规模聚集的可能,现阶段我国猴痘疫情呈低水平波动,非洲猴痘疫情存在输入我国的可能,诺如病毒肠炎疫情处于初步上升趋势。结论对急性呼吸道传染病、新型冠状病毒感染、流行性感冒、人感染禽流感、猴痘、诺如病毒肠炎等予以关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong region and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in December 2024.Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments,the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial(autonomous region and municipal)centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in December 2024 would be at the same level as that in November 2024.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases.At present,the overall prevalence of acute respiratory infectious diseases continues to rise,and the recent epidemic situation of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in China is still at a low level.It is estimated that the COVID-19 may pick up slightly in December 2024,but it is still likely to be at a low level.The positive rate of influenza virus testing in southern and northern provinces of China has increased,and there is a possibility of sporadic and small clusters of human infection with avian influenza.At present,the mpox epidemic in China is fluctuating at a low level,and there is a possibility of African mpox cases entering China.The outbreak of norovirus is in a preliminary upward trend.Conclusion Attention should be paid to multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases,COVID-19,influenza,human infection with avian influenza,mpox,norovirus enteritis.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51