2012-2021年上海市宝山区居民死因及期望寿命变化分析  

Analysis of the changes in the causes of death and life expectancy in residents of Baoshan district in Shanghai,2012−2021

作　　者：李鹏斌 刘世友[1] 汪金辰 蔡卫华[1] 朱三妹[1] 茅俭英[1] Li Pengbin;Liu Shiyou;Wang Jinchen;Cai Weihua;Zhu Sanmei;Mao Jianying(Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201901,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市宝山区疾病预防控制中心,上海201901

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第12期1555-1560,共6页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：上海市宝山区科委医学卫生项目(No.2023-E-44)。

摘　　要：目的分析2012—2021年上海市宝山区居民死因及期望寿命变化情况,并探究不同年龄组和死因对期望寿命的影响。方法收集2012—2021年上海市宝山区户籍居民的人口资料和死因资料,应用简略期望寿命表法计算历年期望寿命;应用Joinpoint回归分析期望寿命变化趋势;应用Arriaga’s法对期望寿命变化进行年龄组和死因别分解。结果2012—2021年上海市宝山区居民期望寿命增加1.80岁,期望寿命平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为0.28%,其95%置信区间(CI)为0.21%~0.35%,其中男性增加1.66岁(AAPC=0.27%,95%CI:0.14%~0.40%),女性增加1.98岁(AAPC=0.30%,95%CI:0.23%~0.32%)。各年龄组死亡率变化对居民期望寿命变化皆为正向贡献,65~岁年龄组使总体期望寿命增加1.27岁(贡献率:70.48%),男性和女性分别增加0.92岁(贡献率:55.04%)和1.72岁(贡献率:87.05%),为对期望寿命正向贡献最大的年龄组。各死因中,呼吸系统疾病、肿瘤和循环系统疾病为正向贡献最大的前3位死因,贡献率分别为30.84%、30.26%和12.76%;内分泌、营养代谢疾病负向贡献最大,贡献率为-11.12%。结论2012—2021年上海市宝山区居民期望寿命显著增加,内分泌、营养代谢疾病对期望寿命增加负向贡献最大,在后续疾病防控中应采取针对性措施降低内分泌、营养代谢疾病死亡率,以进一步提高居民期望寿命。Objective To analyze the changes in death patterns and life expectancy in residents of Baoshan district in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021.Methods Demographic and death cause data of registered residents in Baoshan from 2012 to 2021 were collected,and the life expectancy was calculated by using abbreviated life expectancy table.Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of life expectancy.Arriaga's method was used to decompose changes in life expectancy contributed by age groups and causes of death.Results From 2012 to 2021,the life expectancy of residents in Baoshan increased by 1.80 years[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.28%,95%confidence interval(CI):0.21%–0.35%]and life expectancy increased by 1.66 years in men(AAPC=0.27%,95%CI:0.14%–0.40%)and 1.98 years(AAPC=0.30%,95%CI:0.23%–0.32%)in women.All age groups contributed positively to the life expectancy,with age group 65–years having the biggest contribution(1.27 years,70.48%).The life expectancy increased by 1.72 years in women(87.05%)and 0.92 years in men(55.04%)in this age group.The positive contribution rates of respiratory diseases,tumors and circulatory diseases to the life expectancy were 30.84%,30.26%and 12.76%,respectively.Endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases had the highest rate of negative contribution to the life expectancy(11.12%).Conclusion The life expectancy of residents in Baoshan in Shanghai increased significantly from 2012 to 2021.Endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases had the biggest negative contribution to the life expectancy.Targeted measures should be taken to reduce the mortality of endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases in the prevention and control of diseases to improve the life expectancy.

关 键 词：期望寿命 Arriaga’s分解法 死亡原因 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R195.3