2012-2021年上海市奉贤区户籍居民4类慢性病死亡水平及早死概率变化趋势分析  

Analysis on mortality and premature death probability of four types of chronic diseases in local residents in Fengxiandistrict of Shanghai, 2012−2021

作　　者：邓泽南 胡屹[2] 薛婷 汤海英[1] 黄芳[1] 徐海峰[1] 高阳 Deng Zenan;Hu Yi;Xue Ting;Tang Haiying;Huang Fang;Xu Haifeng;Gao Yang(Fengxian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201499,China;School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市奉贤区疾病预防控制中心,上海201499 [2]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第12期1584-1589,共6页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：上海市奉贤区科学技术委员会社会类科技发展基金资助项目(No.20221209)。

摘　　要：目的分析2012—2021年上海市奉贤区户籍居民心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病4类慢性病死亡情况、早死概率及变化趋势,为慢性病管理政策制定提供依据。方法基于上海市死因登记系统中2012—2021年上海市奉贤区户籍居民死因监测资料,分析4大类慢性病死亡率、早死概率等指标,使用Joinpoint 5.0软件进行趋势分析,计算年度变化百分比(APC)。结果2012—2021年上海市奉贤区4类慢性病死亡占总死亡的比例从78.94%上升至85.18%,呈上升趋势(APC=0.73%,P<0.05),标化死亡率呈下降趋势(APC=-2.20%,P<0.05)。早死概率由2012年的9.75%下降到2021年8.04%;其中心脑血管疾病变化趋势无统计学意义(APC=-0.68%,P>0.05);慢性呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤早死概率均呈下降趋势(慢性呼吸系统疾病:APC=-7.12%,P<0.05;恶性肿瘤:APC=-2.83%,P<0.05);糖尿病早死概率呈上升趋势(APC=3.31%,P<0.05)。结论2012—2021年上海市奉贤区户籍居民4类慢性病标化死亡率与早死概率呈下降趋势。全人群及女性可以实现4类慢性病早死概率“健康中国2030”目标,但男性距离目标尚有差距,应继续加强慢性病防控工作,重点关注男性、糖尿病患者人群。Objective To analyze the mortality,premature death probability and change trend of cardio/cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumor,chronic respiratory disease and diabetes in local residents in Fengxian district of Shanghai from 2012 to 2021 and provide evidence for the development of local chronic disease management policies.Methods Based on the death cause surveillance data of local residents from Shanghai Coroner's Registration System in Fengxian from 2012 to 2021,the mortality rate and the probabilities of premature deaths of the 4 types of chronic diseases were analyzed,and the trend analysis was conducted by using software Joinpoint 5.0 to calculate the annual percentage change(APC).Results From 2012 to 2021,the constituient ratio of deaths caused by the 4 types of chronic diseases in total deaths in Fengxian increased from 78.94%to 85.18%,showing an upward trend(APC=0.73%,P<0.05),while the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend(APC=−2.20%,P<0.05).The probability of premature death decreased from 9.75%in 2012 to 8.04%in 2021.There was no statistically significant difference in the change trend for cardio/cerebrovascular diseases(APC=−0.68%,P>0.05),while the probabilities of premature deaths of chronic respiratory disease(APC=−7.12%,P<0.05)and malignant tumor(APC=−2.83%,P<0.05)showed downward trends,and the probability of premature death of diabetes showed an upward trend(APC=3.31%,P<0.05).Conclusion The standardized mortality rate and premature death probabilities of four types of chronic diseases in local population in Fengxian showed downward trends.The goal of reducing the probabilities of premature deaths from four types of chronic diseases in“Healthy China 2030 Initiative”can be reached in whole population and women,but men still have a gap from the goal.It is still necessary to further strengthen the prevention and control of chronic disease,especially in men and people with diabetes.

关 键 词：慢性病 早死概率 趋势 死亡率 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R197