基于Joinpoint回归模型2012-2023年广西壮族自治区桂林市流行性腮腺炎流行趋势分析  

Joinpoint regression model based analysis on mumps incidence trend in Guilin,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,2012−2023

作　　者：叶振锋 周云[2] 蒋述香 唐国荣 Ye Zhenfeng;Zhou Yun;Jiang Shuxiang;Tang Guorong(School of Public Health,Guilin Medical University,Guilin 541001,Guangxi,China;Guilin Prefectural Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guilin 541001,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林医学院公共卫生学院,广西桂林541001 [2]桂林市疾病预防控制中心,广西桂林541001

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第12期1610-1614,共5页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的了解2012—2023年广西壮族自治区桂林市流行性腮腺炎(流腮)流行特征及长期变化趋势,为桂林市流腮的防控提供科学依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2012—2023年桂林市流腮病例资料,以描述性流行病学研究方法分析流行特征。采用Joinpoint回归分析对2012—2023年桂林市流腮发病率变化趋势进行分析。结果2012—2023年桂林市累计报告流腮病例13622例,无死亡病例,年平均报告发病率为22.86/10万。发病主要集中在2~岁年龄组的儿童青少年,5~岁年龄组平均发病率最高(188.19/10万),其次是4~岁年龄组(181.94/10万)。发病时间呈双峰分布,5—7月与11—12月为流行季。病例主要分布在秀峰区、象山区、灵川县、全州县、荔浦市,共报告6954例。Joinpoint回归分析显示,2012—2023年总人群报告发病率缓慢下降趋势[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=−5.67%,P=0.010]。结论2012—2023年桂林市流腮报告发病率变化总体呈下降趋势,但仍处于较高水平,今后需继续落实含腮腺炎疫苗的常规接种策略,积极开展综合性防控措施,有效控制流腮的流行。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and long-term incidence trend of mumps in Guilin,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2012 to 2023,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of mumps.Methods The incidence data of mumps in Guilin from 2012 to 2023 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System for a descriptive epidemiological analysis.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend of mumps in Guilin from 2012 to 2023.Results From 2012 to 2023,a total of 13622 mumps cases were reported in Guilin,without fatal cases,and the average annual incidence rate was 22.86/100000.The cases mainly occurred in children and adolescents aged 2−14 years,with the highest incidence rate in age group 5−years(188.19/100000),followed by age group 4−years(181.94/100000).The annual incidence peaks occurred during May-July and November-December.The cases were mainly distributed in Xiufeng,Xiangshan,Lingchuan,Quanzhou and Lipu,where a total of 6954 cases were reported.The Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a slow declining trend in the overall incidence rate reported in population in Guilin from 2012 to 2023[average annual percent change(AAPC)=−5.67%,P=0.010].Conclusion The overall incidence rate of mumps reported in Guilin from 2012 to 2023 showed a decreasing trend,but it was still at a high level,and in the future,it is necessary to continue to implement the routine Mumps vaccine vaccination strategy,and carry out active and comprehensive preventive and control to effectively control the incidence of mumps.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行特征 变化趋势 Joinpoint回归模型 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R512.1