自然灾害、防灾设施与农户消费  

Natural Disasters,Disaster Prevention Facilities,and Rural Household Consumption

作　　者：杨真 辛宝英[1] Yang Zhen;Xin Baoying(Research Center of Rural Revitalization,Shandong Management University,Shandong Jinan 250357,China)

机构地区：[1]山东管理学院乡村振兴研究中心,山东济南250357

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2024年第6期93-107,共15页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BJY125)。

摘　　要：扩大内需是推动高质量发展、增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性的重要手段,其中乡村消费提质扩容的潜力巨大,是扩大内需的重要着力点。然而,近年来自然灾害频发,抑制了乡村消费潜力的释放。文章使用中国家庭追踪调查数据,分析了防灾设施通过消解自然灾害的负向冲击发挥对农户消费的提振作用。研究发现:第一,自然灾害冲击风险和实际冲击的加大均抑制农户消费。第二,防灾设施不仅降低自然灾害对农户收入的冲击,提高农户的消费能力,还减轻自然灾害对农户风险态度的冲击。较低的风险厌恶既有助于提高农户的消费意愿,也有助于提高农户的劳动力配置效率和增收空间,从而进一步提高农户的消费能力。第三,防灾设施的消费提振效果随自然灾害风险的上升和农户的机械化作业程度的提高而强化。上述结论意味着着力补齐防灾设施的供给短板,既有助于消解频发的自然灾害对乡村消费造成的现实约束,也为促进农民增收、推动乡村振兴提供有效抓手。Expanding domestic demand is an important means to promote high-quality development and enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic circulation.The potential for improving and expanding rural consumption is enormous,and it is an important focus for expanding domestic demand.However,in recent years,natural disasters have occurred frequently,which may inhibit the release of rural consumption potential.Using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)over the years,this paper analyzes the boosting effect of disaster prevention facilities on rural household consumption by mitigating the adverse impact of natural disasters.The results show that:First,the increase of natural disaster risks and the increase of the actual impact both suppress rural household consumption.Second,disaster prevention facilities not only reduce the impact of natural disasters on rural household income and improve their consumption ability,but also reduce the impact of natural disasters on farmers'risk attitudes.Lower risk aversion not only helps to increase farmers'willingness to consume,but also improves their labor allocation efficiency and income growth space,thereby further enhancing their consumption ability.Third,the consumption boosting effect of disaster prevention facilities is strengthened with the increase of natural disaster risks and the increase of the mechanization level.The conclusions show that efforts to make up for the undersupply of disaster prevention facilities will not only help to alleviate the practical constraints caused by frequent natural disasters on expanding rural consumption,but also provide effective measures to promote rural household income and rural revitalization.

关 键 词：自然灾害 农户消费 防灾设施 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]