考虑空间异质性的黄河流域气象干旱时空演变及其驱动力研究  

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Meteorological Droughtin the Yellow River Basin Considering Spatial Heterogeneity

作　　者：殷晖 白福青 YIN Hui;BAI Fu-qing(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Eclectic Power,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang Province,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江水利水电学院建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第2期74-81,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金水利联合基金重点项目(LZJWZ22C030001);浙江水利水电学院项目(X20230002);浙江省水利厅水利科技重点项目(RB2115)。

摘　　要：干旱是干旱、半干旱区时常发生且最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,其频率高、持续时间长和波及范围广的特点,对全球范围内的生态、经济和农业系统造成了严重影响,且气候变暖背景下其时空特征愈加复杂。开展不同气候区多尺度气象干旱特征及其潜在影响因素研究旨在减轻旱灾损失,促进流域可持续发展。因此,研究以黄河流域为研究对象,充分考虑流域气象、下垫面要素的空间异质性影响,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、游程理论和多时间尺度SPEI指数方法,揭示不同气候区多时间尺度气象干旱的时空演变特征,并量化评估极端气候变量对不同气候带多尺度气象干旱的相对贡献。结果表明:时程上,流域多时间尺度气象干旱整体呈“湿润-干旱-湿润”的趋势变化规律,干旱化程度高时段主要出现在90 a左右;空间上,流域中游(D和E区)干旱化程度最大,其次为下游,而上游最小;同时,干旱特征变量、极端气候指标(降水和温度)在不同气候区均表现出较强的空间异质性,SDII、R10、R20、CDD、R99pToT、R95pTOT、R95p、Rx5day、Rx1day、TX90p和SU共11个变量解释了80%以上的气象干旱的演变特征,且Rx5day变量对不同时间尺度气象干旱的贡献占主导地位,其贡献高达65%左右。研究结果可为流域生态保护、水资源管理和气候变化适应性提供重要信息,并有效提高干旱过程的可预测性。Drought is one of the most frequent and destructive natural disasters that occur in arid and semi-arid regions.Its high frequency,long duration,and wide impact have had a serious impact on ecological,economic,and agricultural systems worldwide,and its spatiotemporal characteristics have become increasingly complex under the background of climate change.The research on multi-scale meteorological drought characteristics and potential influencing factors in different climate zones aims to reduce drought losses and promote sustainable development of the watershed.Therefore,this article takes the Yellow River Basin as the research object,fully considering the spatial heterogeneity of meteorological and underlying surface elements in the basin.The Mann-Kendall trend test,run theory,and multi-time scale SPEI index method are used to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of multi-scale meteorological drought in different climate zones,and quantitatively evaluate the relative contribution of extreme climate variables to multi-scale meteorological drought in different climate zones.The results show that,in terms of time course,the overall trend of meteorological drought in the watershed at multiple time scales follows a pattern of"humid-arid-humid",with the highest degree of drought mainly occurring around 90 years;In terms of space,the degree of drought in the middle reaches of the watershed(D and E zones)is the highest,followed by the downstream,and the upstream is the smallest.Drought characteristic variables and extreme climate indicators(precipitation and temperature)exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in different climate regions.SDII,R10,R20,CDD,R99pToT,R95pTOT,R95p,Rx5day,Rx1day,TX90p,and SU variables explain more than 80%of the evolution characteristics of meteorological drought,and Rx5day variables dominate the contribution of meteorological drought at different time scales,with a contribution rate of about 65%.The research results provide important information for watershed ecological protec

关 键 词：极端气候 气象干旱 驱动力 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]