CMADS对黄河源区水文模拟的适用性研究  

Applicability of CMADS for Hydrological Simulation over the Yellow River Source Area

作　　者：王闯 董增川[1] 崔洵 彭宇晴 WANG Chuang;DONG Zeng-chuan;CUI Xun;PENG Yu-qing(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第2期97-105,113,共10页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：再分析数据集对于水文模拟和可靠的水资源管理具有吸引力,特别是对于气象资料匮乏的地区。研究以黄河源为研究区,使用中国大气同化驱动数据集(the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT Model,CMADS)驱动SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型进行日尺度径流模拟并使用SWAT-CUP(SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program)和SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-2)算法进行率定和验证,评估CMADS的精度及其对黄河源区水文模拟的适用性。结果表明:(1)CMADS在黄河源区的日尺度气温精度非常高,与流域内8个气象站实测数据的相关系数均在0.95以上。汛期日降水精度令人满意,相对误差基本在±10%之间,非汛期的日降水精度差,相对误差基本在-30%到-50%之间。(2)SWAT模型在黄河源区水文模拟的适用性非常强,利用气象站观测数据驱动SWAT模型得到率定期和验证期的NSE、R2、PBIAS、RSR和KGE各项评价指标等级均为非常好。(3)采用两种方法对CMADS水文模拟适用性进行评估。方法一是用CMADS驱动SWAT模型率定和验证并进行水文模拟;方法二是用CMADS驱动已经用实测气象数据率定好最佳参数的SWAT模型进行水文模拟。结果发现,CMADS在黄河源区水文模拟与实测流量相关性高,但是容易低估流量,总体来看,CMADS在黄河源区水文模拟适用性不错,其中方法一比方法二的水文模拟效果好。研究的结果证明CMADS可为气象资料稀缺的高寒山区提供较为可靠的数据来源,为扩大水文模拟的时间和空间尺度提供了可能。Reanalysis datasets are attractive for hydrological modeling and reliable water resource management,especially for areas where meteorological information is scarce.This study takes the Yellow River source as the research area,uses the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Dataset for the SWAT Model(CMADS)to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model for daily scale runoff simulation,and uses the SWAT-CUP(SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program)and SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-2)algorithms for calibration and validation to evaluate the accuracy of CMADS and its applicability for hydrological simulation in the Yellow River source area.The results show that:①The accuracy of CMADS for daily scale temperature in the Yellow River source area is very high,and the correlation coefficients with the measured data from eight meteorological stations in the basin are all above 0.95.The accuracy of daily precipitation during the flood season is satisfactory,with the relative error basically between±10%,and the accuracy of daily precipitation during the non-flood season is poor,with the relative error basically between-30%and-50%.②The applicability of SWAT model for hydrological simulation over the Yellow River source area is very strong.The NSE,R2,PBIAS,RSR and KGE evaluation indicators of the calibration period and the validation period obtained by driving the SWAT model using meteorological station observation data are all very good..③Two methods are used to evaluate the applicability of CMADS hydrologic simulation.Method 1 is to use CMADS to drive the SWAT model to rate and validate and perform hydrological simulation;method 2 is to use CMADS to drive the SWAT model,which has already been rate-validated with the best parameters using measured meteorological data,to perform hydrological simulation.It was found that the hydrological simulation of CMADS in the source area of the Yellow River had a high correlation with the measured flow,but it was easy to underestimate the flow.Overall,the applica

关 键 词：CMADS 黄河源区 高寒山区 SWAT模型 

分 类 号：P334[天文地球—水文科学]