基于SMAA-GTDM的水库调度风险型群决策模型  

Risk-based Group Decision Making model based on SMAA-GTDM for Reservoir Scheduling

作　　者：王雅琴 孔祥意 朱非林[1] 朱冰[2] 韩明宇 钟平安[1] WANG Ya-qin;KONG Xiang-yi;ZHU Fei-lin;ZHU Bing;HAN Ming-yu;ZHONG Ping-an(College Of Hydrology And Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部信息中心,北京100053

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第2期106-113,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202801);国家自然科学基金项目(52009029);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(B240201123);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022075)。

摘　　要：随机环境下的水库多目标优化调度结果是一组具有不确定性的非劣解集,传统的确定性决策方法难以定量考虑水库调度决策过程中的综合不确定性因素和风险。若按确定性决策结果进行调度,会给水库实际调度带来风险。为应对不确定性因素对水库调度决策问题的影响,减小随机环境下水库调度决策的风险,提出了一种考虑多重不确定性的水库调度风险型群决策模型。首先,采用概率分布量化了决策指标的不确定性。然后,提出了基于熵权法、模糊层次分析法、博弈论和偏差最小准则的决策群体偏好冲突消解和赋权方法,采用可行权重空间推求指标权重可行域。最后,建立了基于SMAA-GTDM的水库调度风险型群决策模型,提出了风险型群决策的两阶段流程,并定义了决策风险度指标对决策结果进行可靠性评估。以大渡河流域瀑布沟水库防洪调度为实际案例,与确定性GTDM模型做了对比分析,论证了SMAA-GTDM风险型群决策模型及其两阶段决策流程在处理风险决策问题方面的可行性和优越性。进一步与原始的SMAA-2模型开展对比验证,结果表明,两个模型结果中综合排序最优方案获得最优排序的概率分别为68.95%、45.61%,置信因子分别为69.1%、46.22%,决策风险度分别为0.04%、1.55%,说明SMAA-GTDM模型能在随机环境下提供更明确的排序结果,显著减小决策风险,可为水库调度提供更为稳健的决策支撑。The results of multi-objective optimal scheduling of reservoirs in stochastic environment is a set of non-inferior solution sets with uncertainty,and the traditional deterministic decision-making methods are difficult to quantitatively consider the synthetical uncertainties and risks in the decision-making process of reservoir scheduling.If scheduling is based on deterministic decision results,it will create risks for the actual scheduling of the reservoir.In order to cope with the influence of uncertainty factors on the reservoir scheduling decision-making problem and to reduce the risk of reservoir scheduling decision-making in a stochastic environment,this paper proposes a risk-based group decision-making model for reservoir scheduling considering multiple uncertainties.Firstly,we quantify the uncertainties of the decision indicatorsindexes by probability distribution.Then,we propose the resolution of decision-maker group preference conflict and empowerment method based on entropy weight method,fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,game theory and the principle of minimum deviation,and then adopt the feasible weight space to derive the feasible domain of the index weights.Finally,we establish a risk-based group decision-making model based on SMAA-GTDM for reservoir scheduling,and then propose a two-stage process for risk-based group decision-making.The decision risk degree index is defined to assess the reliability of the decision results.Applying the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Pubugou Reservoir of Dadu River basin in China,the feasibility and superiority of the risk-based group decision-making model based on SMAA-GTDM and its two-phase decision-making process in dealing with decision-making risky problems are demonstrated by a comparative analysis with the deterministic GTDM model.Further onwards,we conduct comparative verification experiments with the original SMAA-2 model.The results show that the probability of obtaining the optimal rank for the scheme with the best comprehensive rank

关 键 词：水库调度 风险型群决策 随机多准则可接受性分析理论 灰靶决策 组合赋权 决策可靠性 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]