技术经济周期与金融风险防范  

Study on techno-economic cycle and financial risk prevention

作　　者：张明喜[1] ZHANG Mingxi(Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术发展战略研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国软科学》2025年第1期58-64,共7页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“全球价值链参与度波动的诱因、影响与中国控制对策研究”(21CJY015);国家高端智库课题“推动构建中国特色科技金融体系和多元化科技投入格局的政策机制研究”。

摘　　要：把握好技术经济周期规律、防范化解金融风险对于建设科技强国和金融强国具有重要意义。以历史上3次工业革命为切入点,探讨技术经济周期与金融风险间的关系。在技术经济周期中,先进技术应用、经济结构转变和社会变迁,推动金融创新发展和升级,同时也孕育着金融风险。反之,资本的快速积累和金融风险释放对科技进步不可或缺。研究表明,我国走出一条压缩式工业化道路,同时面临技术经济周期进入后半段的挑战。后半段的共性风险主要有金融资本与实体经济脱节可能性加大、新型基础设施投资风险、金融体制僵化导致的风险等。我国所处阶段也面临着金融科技发展、金融更高开放程度和中美战略博弈升级所引发的特殊风险。建议推动科技、产业、金融资源一体化配置,深化科技金融体制改革,加快构建技术驱动型监管体系,不断提升金融的国际竞争力,筑牢金融基础设施根基。It is of great value to grasp the law of technological economic cycle and prevent and resolve financial risks for building a strong country in science and technology and a strong country in finance.Based on the three industrial revolutions in history,this paper discusses the relationship between technological economic cycle and financial risk.In the technological economic cycle,the application of advanced technologies,the transformation of economic structure and social changes,promote the development and upgrading of financial innovation,but also breed financial risks.On the contrary,the rapid accumulation of capital and the release of financial risks are indispensable to scientific and technological progress.The research shows that China has stepped out of a compressed industrialization road,but also faces the challenge of entering the second half of the technological economic cycle.In the second half of the common risks are mainly the possibility of financial capital and the real economy,the risk of new infrastructure investment,the risk caused by the rigidity of the financial system.At this stage,China is also facing special risks caused by the development of financial technology,higher degree of financial openness and Sino-US strategic game.It is suggested to promote the integrated allocation of science and technology,industry and financial resources,deepen the reform of the science and technology financial system,accelerate the construction of a technology-driven regulatory system,continuously improve the international competitiveness of the financial industry,and build a solid foundation for financial infrastructure.

关 键 词：技术经济 技术经济周期 金融风险 科技金融 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学] F830.3[文化科学] G30