不同气候分区的青海省水面蒸发影响因子分析  

Estimation of Evapotranspiration in Qinghai Province Based on Climate Division and Path Analysis of its Influencing Factors

作　　者：郭燕 王晶[1] 张嘉男 赵冰钰 张烜宇 刘春伟[2] GUO Yan;WANG Jing;ZHANG Jia-nan;ZHAO Bing-yu;ZHANG Xuan-yu;LIU Chun-wei(Qinghai Meteorological Information Center,Xining 810001,Qinghai Province,China;School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省气象信息中心,青海西宁810001 [2]南京信息工程大学生态与应用气象学院,江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2025年第2期43-52,共10页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：青海省气象局面上项目(QXMS2023-37)。

摘　　要：为探究青海省不同气候分区(东部农业区、柴达木盆地、环青海湖区、三江源区)水面蒸发的变化特征及其影响因子,基于FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM)公式,利用青海省50个国家气象站点2018-2022年的气象资料,建立多元回归模型计算青海省各气候区水面蒸发量,分析不同时间尺度上青海省不同气候分区水面蒸发的变化特征,并利用通径分析方法对各气候区水面蒸发的影响因子进行剖析。结果表明:水面蒸发年际变化范围为2.58~2.92 mm/d,4个气候区均在2022年达到最大值;季节变化表现为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季;月变化最大值均出现在7月,为柴达木盆地>东部农业区>环青海湖区>三江源区。东部农业区,气象因子对水面蒸发的综合决定能力排序为VPD>R_(n)>n>WS,VPD对水面蒸发变化的直接作用最大(决策系数为0.75),其次是WS,R_(n)主要通过n路径对水面蒸发变化产生间接作用(间接作用系数为0.47);柴达木盆地,各因子决策系数排序为VPD>R_(n)>RH_(mean)>WS>T_(min),R_(n)对水面蒸发变化的直接作用最大(决策系数为0.50),其次是T_(min),VPD对水面蒸发的间接作用最大(间接作用系数为0.51),通过R_(n)路径间接影响水面蒸发,WS通过T_(min)路径间接影响水面蒸发(间接作用系数为0.18),RH_(mean)对水面蒸发的影响最小且为负效应;环青海湖区,VPD、R_(n)和WS是驱动水面蒸发变化的最主要因子且起直接作用,决策系数分别为0.62、0.69和0.05,表明R_(n)对水面蒸发变化促进作用比VPD明显;三江源区,VPD对水面蒸发的直接影响最大(决策系数为1.05),其次是WS。T_(mean)可通过VPD、R_(n)和RH_(mean)路径间接影响水面蒸发(间接作用系数为0.76),R_(n)和n分别通过T_(mean)和R_(n)路径对水面蒸发变化产生间接作用(间接作用系数分别为0.48和0.69),VPD、R_(n)、WS、T_(mean)和n对水面蒸发均有增进作用,而RH_(mean)对水面蒸发的影响最小且对水面蒸发变化有抑制作用(In order to explore the variation characteristics and influencing factors of water surface evaporation in different climatic regions of Qinghai Province(Eastern agricultural region,Qaidam Basin,Qinghai Lake region and Sanjiangyuan region),based on the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM)formula,this paper uses the meteorological data of 50 national meteorological stations in Qinghai Province from 2018 to 2022 to establish a multiple regression model to calculate the water surface evaporation in each climatic region of Qinghai Province,and analyze the variation characteristics of water surface evaporation in different climatic regions of Qinghai Province on different time scales.The path analysis method is used to analyze the influencing factors of water surface evaporation in each climatic region.The results show that the annual variation range of water surface evaporation ranged from 2.58 to 2.92 mm/d,with the maximum values occurring in all four climatic zones in 2022.The seasonal variation followed the pattern:summer>spring>autumn>winter,with the maximum value of monthly variation value observed in July.The order of the climatic zones was Qaidam Basin>Eastern agricultural area>Qinghai Lake area>Sanjiangyuan area.In the Eastern agricultural area,the comprehensive determination ability of meteorological factors on water surface evaporation is ranked as VPD>R_(n)>n>WS.VPD has the greatest direct effect on water surface evaporation change(decision coefficient is 0.75),followed by WS,and R_(n) has an indirect effect on water surface evaporation change mainly through n path(indirect effect coefficient is 0.47).In Qaidam Basin,the order of decision coefficients of each factor is VPD>R_(n)>RH_(mean)>WS>T_(min).R_(n) has the greatest direct effect on water surface evaporation(decision coefficient is 0.50),followed by T_(min).VPD has the greatest indirect effect on water surface evaporation(indirect effect coefficient is 0.51),which indirectly affects water surface evaporation through R_(n) path.WS indirectly affects water surfac

关 键 词：水面蒸发 多元线性回归 通径分析 不同气候分区 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]