1958-2023年安徽省淮北平原作物生育期内旱涝急转特征分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics of Drought Flood Abrupt Alternation During Crop Growth Period in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province from 1958 to 2023

作　　者：梁晨辉 朱永华[1,2,3] 王启猛 吕海深[1,3] 王怡宁[1,4] LIANG Chen-hui;ZHU Yong-hua;WANG Qi-meng;LÜ Hai-shen;WANG Yi-ning(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;College of Geography and Remote Sensing,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu Province,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu Province,China;The Huaihe River Commission of the Ministry of Water Resource,P.R.C,Bengbu 233001,Anhui Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学地理与遥感学院,江苏南京211100 [3]水灾害防御全国重点实验室,河海大学,江苏南京210098 [4]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [5]水利部淮河水利委员会,安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2025年第2期71-77,84,共8页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071033,41830752)。

摘　　要：为探究不同作物生育期内旱涝急转时空演变特征,使用安徽省淮北平原6个气象站1958-2023年数据,基于标准加权平均降水指数结合游程理论方法识别冬小麦和夏玉米生育期内旱涝急转,将整个研究期等分为2个时期,分析了作物生育期内的时空变化规律。结果表示:①标准加权平均降水指数结合游程理论方法适用于旱涝急转的识别判断;②冬小麦各生育期旱涝急转频次和受灾风险,整体上高于夏玉米,冬小麦面临旱涝急转威胁高于夏玉米;③时空上,安徽省淮北平原旱涝急转频次、平均强度和受灾风险大部地区呈现上升趋势;④冬小麦播种-出苗、出苗-返青和返青-拔节期旱涝急转风险较高,其中播种-出苗期和返青-拔节期有恶化趋势,夏玉米在拔节-抽雄和灌浆-成熟生育期旱涝急转风险较大,且在拔节-抽雄生育期有上升趋势。将各生育期旱涝急转特征与旱涝急转对农作物影响综合考虑,需要对以下生育期及相应地区进行重点防御:冬小麦播种-出苗、返青-拔节和夏玉米拔节-抽雄时期,冬小麦拔节-抽穗期的蚌埠、蒙城和亳州地区,以及夏玉米灌浆-成熟期的蚌埠地区,这些时期和相应地区将面临较高的旱涝急转风险。In order to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of drought flood abrupt alternation in different crop growth periods.This paper uses the data of 6 meteorological stations in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province from 1958 to 2023 to identify the drought flood abrupt alternation during the growth period of winter wheat and summer maize based on SWAP combined with process theory method.The whole research period is divided into two periods,and the spatial and temporal changes during the growth period of crops are analyzed.The results show that:①SWAP combined with run theory method is effective for the identification of drought flood abrupt alternation;②The frequency and risk of drought flood abrupt alternation of winter wheat were higher than those of summer maize,and the threat of drought flood abrupt alternation of winter wheat was higher than that of summer maize;③Temporally and spatially,the frequency,average intensity and disaster risk of drought and flood in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province showed an upward trend in most areas;④The risk of drought flood abrupt alternation in sowing-emergence stage,emergence-regreening stage and regreening-jointing stage of winter wheat was higher,and there is a deteriorating trend in sowing-emergence stage and regreening-jointing stage.The risk of drought flood abrupt alternation in jointing-tasseling stage and filling-maturity stage of summer maize was higher,and there is an upward trend in jointing-tasseling stage.Considering the characteristics of drought flood abrupt alternation in each growth period and the impact of drought flood abrupt alternation on crops,it is necessary to focus on the following growth periods and corresponding areas:winter wheat sowing-emergence,regreening-jointing and summer maize jointing-tasseling period,winter wheat jointing-heading period Bengbu,Mengcheng and Bozhou areas,and summer maize filling-maturity Bengbu area,these periods and corresponding areas will face higher risk of drought flood abrupt alternation.

关 键 词：安徽省淮北平原 旱涝急转 生育期 夏玉米 冬小麦 游程理论 标准化加权平均降水指数 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV125[农业科学—农业工程]