典型山区撂荒耕地精准识别及驱动机制研究  

Research on Precise Identification and Driving Mechanisms of Abandoned Cultivated Land in Typical Mountainous Areas

作　　者：程钰颖 陈文波 来洒洒 CHENG Yuying;CHEN Wenbo;LAI Sasa(School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecological Process and Information,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;Nanchang Key Laboratory of Landscape Process and Territorial Spatial Ecological Restoration,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,江西南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学江西省流域生态过程与信息重点实验室,江西南昌330013 [3]东华理工大学南昌市景观过程与国土空间生态修复重点实验室,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2024年第12期93-104,共12页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42471120,42261021)。

摘　　要：研究目的:识别典型山区芦溪县2015—2023年撂荒耕地,系统分析耕地撂荒的驱动机制,为保障粮食安全提供科学参考。研究方法:遥感图像解译、随机森林法、系统动力学模型。研究结果:(1)采用随机森林法在土地利用类型识别中表现出高精准度,配合撂荒耕地提取流程,可以实现撂荒耕地的高效精准识别;(2)2015—2023年芦溪县撂荒耕地面积波动明显。撂荒耕地主要分布在芦溪县西北部和新泉乡,且地块分散,新泉乡耕地撂荒期较长,而西北部耕地撂荒期较短;(3)撂荒耕地的驱动机制可以总结为农业收入水平、农业劳动力和农业保险三条主要途径。研究结论:随机森林分类方法识别山区撂荒耕地方面具有较强的应用前景。撂荒耕地的驱动机制十分复杂,可以从系统的角度全面解析。The purpose of this study is to precisely identify the abandoned cultivated land in typical mountainous area,Luxi County from 2015 to 2023,through a systematic analysis of the driving mechanisms underlying abandoned cultivated land,to provide the scientific references for ensuring food security.The research methods include remote sensing image interpretation,random forest method,and system dynamics model.The research results show that:1)the random forest method demonstrates high precision in land use type identification,indicating that this method can achieve precise identification of land use.Thus,the abandoned cultivated land can be precisely identified following the identification rules.2)From 2015 to 2023,the area of abandoned cultivated land in Luxi County fluctuated significantly.The abandoned cultivated land is mainly distributed in the northwest of Luxi County and Xinquan Town,and the plots are scattered.Xinquan Town experiences a longer period of cultivated land abandonment,while the northwest has a shorter period.3)The driving mechanisms of abandoned cultivated land can be summarized into three main pathways,including agricultural income levels,agricultural labor force,and agricultural insurance.In conclusion,the random forest classification method has strong application prospects in identifying abandoned cultivated land in mountainous areas.The driving mechanisms of abandoned cultivated land are very complex and can be thoroughly analyzed from a systemic perspective.

关 键 词：撂荒耕地 影响机理 驱动机制 随机森林 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]