基于ELES模型的中国农村居民消费结构分析  

Analysis of the Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in China Based on ELES Model

作　　者：刘佳悦 李岩 LIU Jiayue;LI Yan(School of Economics and Management,Shenyang University of Chemical Technology,Shenyang 110142,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳化工大学经济与管理学院,沈阳110142

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第2期8-14,共7页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：在“双循环”战略驱动下,内需市场扩张成为经济发展的重要驱动力。当前消费市场呈现疲软态势,农村居民消费结构问题凸显,亟待研究和探讨。利用扩展线性支出(ELES)模型,基于2014—2023年统计年鉴数据,对农村居民的消费结构进行深入分析。结果显示,各类消费项目支出与可支配收入均呈显著正相关,揭示农村消费市场的巨大潜力。边际消费倾向分析表明,随着收入增加,农村居民更偏向发展型消费。同时,需求收入弹性显示收入是影响农村消费的关键因素,医疗保健、交通通信、食品烟酒及居住是消费重点。最后,提出了一系列优化消费结构的策略建议,以期为我国农村居民的消费结构改进提供指导,并促进农村消费潜力的充分释放,为农村经济发展注入新的活力。Driven by the“double cycle”strategy,the expansion of the domestic demand market has become an important driving force for economic development.Currently,the consumer market is weak,and the consumption structure of rural residents is prominent,which needs to be studied and discussed urgently.Based on the statistical yearbook data from 2014 to 2023,the consumption structure of rural residents was analyzed in depth using the extended linear expenditure model(ELES model).The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the expenditure of various consumption items and disposable income,which reveals the great potential of the rural consumer market.The analysis of marginal propensity to consume shows that with increased income,rural residents are more inclined to developmental consumption.At the same time,the income elasticity of demand shows that income is the key factor affecting rural consumption,and health care,transportation and communication,food,tobacco,alcohol and housing are the focus of consumption.Finally,a series of strategic suggestions are put forward to optimize the consumption structure,guide the improvement of the consumption structure of rural residents in China,promote the full release of rural consumption potential and inject new vitality into rural economic development.

关 键 词：农村居民 消费结构 ELES模型 边际消费倾向 需求收入弹性 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F224