贵州省农业产业结构调整效果——基于VAR和ARDL模型的分析  

Effect of Agricultural Industrial Structure Adjustment in Guizhou Province:Empirical Analysis Based on VAR and ARDL Models

作　　者：杨尚钊 张宏胜 陈建武 YANG Shangzhao;ZHANG Hongsheng;CHEN Jianwu(School of Economics and Management,Guiyang Institute of Humanities and Science,Guiyang 550025,China;Shizhen College of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵阳人文科技学院经济与管理学院,贵阳550025 [2]贵州中医药大学时珍学院,贵阳550200

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第2期204-211,共8页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：贵州省高校人文社会科学研究项目(2024RW135)。

摘　　要：随着经济水平的发展,农业产业结构也在不断地调整,产业结构调整后的地方实践效果如何?利用贵州省1988—2022年时间序列数据,构建农业产值函数,使用向量自回归(VAR)模型和自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,分析贵州省农业产业总值中的种植业、林业、牧业以及渔业的关联性。实证结果显示,种植业和畜牧业是贵州省农业总产值的主要驱动力,而林业和渔业影响较小。建议重点优化种植业和畜牧业发展策略,推广可持续农业实践和生态养殖模式;调整林业发展策略,平衡短期经济效益和长期生态效益,发展林下经济;渔业应稳步发展,推广精养和生态养殖技术。同时,各产业应加强产业协同,政府制定差异化政策支持,以充分发挥各产业优势,提高生产效率,促进农业总产值持续稳定增长。With the development of economic level,the agricultural industrial structure is also constantly adjusted.Based on the time series data of Guizhou Province from 1988 to 2022,the function of agricultural output value was constructed,and the vector autoregressive(VAR)model and the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model were used to analyze the correlation of planting industry,forestry industry,animal husbandry industry and fishery industry in the total value of agricultural industry in Guizhou Province.The empirical results show that planting and animal husbandry are the main driving forces of the total agricultural output value in Guizhou province,while forestry and fishery have little influence.It is suggested to focus on optimizing the development strategy of planting and animal husbandry,and promoting sustainable agricultural practices and ecological breeding modes,adjusting forestry development strategy,balancing short-term economic benefits and long-term ecological benefits,developing understory economy.The fishery industry should develop steadily and promote fine breeding and ecological breeding technology.At the same time,all industries should strengthen industrial coordination and the government should formulate differentiated policy support to give full play to the advantages of all industries,improve production efficiency and promote the sustainable and stable growth of the total agricultural output value.

关 键 词：农业产业结构 农业产值 VAR和ARDL模型 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]