河北省物流业碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素研究  

ResearchonCResearch on Carbon Emission Decoupling and Driving Factors of logistics Industry in Hebei ProvincearbonEmissionDecouplingand

作　　者：周颖[1] 胡天美 ZHOU Ying;HU Tianmei(School of Management,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学管理学院,河北石家庄050043

出　　处：《石家庄铁道大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期9-17,共9页Journal of Shijiazhuang Tiedao University(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：随着河北省物流业快速发展,分析物流业碳排放与行业经济增长的脱钩效应有利于缓解环境压力,促进物流业发展与碳减排的协调共进。运用Tapio模型对河北省物流业碳排放量与行业经济发展的脱钩状态进行判断,运用Kaya-Lmdi模型分析了河北省物流业碳排放脱钩驱动因素。结果表明:(1)河北省物流业碳排放量和生产总值变化趋势基本一致,从2006—2019年,呈现波动性增长趋势,2019—2022年,出现波动和下降。(2)关于河北省物流业碳排放脱钩状态,2006—2022年以弱脱钩和扩张负脱钩为主,波动较大。(3)关于河北省物流业碳排放脱钩驱动因素,能源结构、运输结构、资金投入促进了河北省物流业碳排放脱钩;其中,运输结构对脱钩起到关键作用。能源强度效应在2006—2017年促进了河北省物流业碳排放脱钩,在2017—2022年阻碍了河北省物流业碳排放脱钩。With the rapid development of the logistics industry in Hebei Province.Analyzing the decoupling effect between carbon emissions and the economic growth of the logistics industry is beneficial for alleviating the environmental pressure and promoting the coordinated progress of the development of logistics industry and carbon emission reduction.This study determined the decoupling status between carbon emissions and industrial economic development of the logistics industry in Hebei Province from 2006 to 2022 by using TAPIO model,and analyzed the decoupling driving factors by using KAYA-LMDI model.The results show that(1)The trend of changes in carbon emissions and gross domestic product is basically the same.From 2006 to 2019,the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hebei Province show a trend of fluctuating growth,and from 2019 to 2022,the carbon emissions fluctuate and decrease.(2)About the carbon emissions decoupling state,From 2006 to 2022,it is mainly weak decoupling and negative decoupling of expansion,which fluctuates greatly.(3)About the Driving factors Energy structure,transportation structure and capital investment promote the of carbon emissions decoupling and economic growth of logistics industry in Hebei Province;Among them,the transportation structure plays a key role in decoupling.The energy intensity effect promotes the decoupling of carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hebei Province from 2006 to 2017,and hinders the decoupling of carbon emissions from 2017—2022.

关 键 词：河北省 物流业 碳排放 脱钩效应 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]