经济增长目标约束下省以下税收分成对基层“三保”支出的影响  

The Impact of Tax Sharing below the Provincial Level on Grassroots"Three Guarantees"Expenditure under the Constraint of Economic Growth Targets

作　　者：仇童伟 彭嫦燕 QIU Tongwei;PENG Changyan(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University;Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance,Southwest University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,210095 [2]西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心,610074

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2024年第11期31-50,共20页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(24&ZD159);国家自科基金青年项目(4240011419)的资助。

摘　　要：保障基层“三保”支出,是保障基层政府实施公共管理、提供基本公共服务以及落实党中央国务院各项基本民生政策的基本财力需要。本文利用中国地方政府财政预决算数据库数据,考察了省以下税收分成对基层“三保”支出的影响及其内在机制。研究显示,市县税收分成比例的提高并未显著激励基层“三保”支出。机制检验表明,市县税收分成比例的提高激励了基层政府发展经济,并使其设定了更高的经济增长目标。诱发该现象的根源在于,省级经济增长目标是借助税收分成实现向下分解的。本文旨在说明,调整省以下税收分成比例来强化基层“三保”保障,需以破除税收分成锚定经济增长目标的契约关系为前提。在准确测算基层“三保”支出合理规模的基础上,强化共同财政事权转移支付专款专用属性,落实财政资金直达机制,加强“三保”支出预算管理。Ensuring the"Three Guarantees"at the grassroots level is the basic financial requirement for grassroots governments to implement public management,provide basic public services,and implement various basic livelihood policies of the Party Central Committee and the State Council.However,the existing studies neglect the role of tax revenue sharing contract tools in ensuring grassroots"Three Guarantees"expenditures.What to be tested in this paper are threefold.Firstly,we investigate the impact of tax revenue sharing below the provincial level on grassroots"Three Guarantees"expenditures.Secondly,this paper explores the internal mechanism of the impact of tax revenue sharing below the provincial level on grassroots"Three Guarantees"expenditures.Thirdly,we examine whether the current fiscal policy can stimulate the protection of the"Three Guarantees"at the grassroots level by examining the two major measures to enhance grassroots financial resourcesthe transfer of joint fiscal powers and the direct mechanism of fiscal funds.The estimated results show that the increase in the proportion of tax sharing in cities and counties has not significantly incentivized grassroots“Three Guarantees”eexpenditures.Mechanism test shows that the increase in the tax sharing ratio of cities and counties has strengthened incentives for grassroots economic development and enabled them to set higher economic growth goals.The root cause of this phenomenon is that provincial economic growth goals are decomposed downwards through tax sharing.Further analysis shows that increasing the transfer payment of joint fiscal powers has not increased the expenditure of grassroots"Three Guarantees",and reducing the interception of fiscal transfer payment funds at the provincial and municipal levels can help improve the expenditure of grassroots"Three Guarantees".The main policy impliecations of this paper are threefold.Firstly,the central government should accurately calculate the scale of"Three Guarantees"expenditure and effectively strengthen the bud

关 键 词：基层“三保” 税收分成 经济增长目标 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]