“同袍异志”:美国盟国对华半导体网络化制裁的政治经济逻辑  

"Allied in Name,Divided in Action":The Political Economy of U.S.Allies'Network Sanctions on China's Semiconductor Technology

作　　者：聂正楠 夏方波 Nie Zhengnan;Xia Fangbo

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系 [2]清华大学战略与安全研究中心 [3]北京外国语大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2024年第6期84-110,166,167,共29页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：博士后面上项目“自决与追随:美国盟国对华半导体技术政策”(项目编号:2023M732014)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：技术竞争是中美战略竞争的核心领域。为遏制中国半导体技术发展,美国不遗余力地动员和威胁其盟国共同对华实施制裁。然而,面对美国的动员与压力,盟国的策略选择呈现显著差异。研究发现,盟国对华产业嵌入程度是决定其是否实施制裁的首要因素。如果对华半导体产业嵌入程度高,不论美国采取何种施压策略,其盟国都将顶住压力并拒绝加入美国对华半导体制裁。如果对华半导体产业嵌入程度适中或较低,美国会依据盟国在半导体价值链的位置采取不同的施压策略:对处于半导体价值链核心区位的盟国,美国会采取集中性施压,盟国将被迫选择跟随美国实施对华制裁;对处于价值链非核心区位的盟国,美国会采取协调性施压,盟国将策略性地对华实施选择性制裁。这一研究发现深化了数字时代大国竞争与联盟转型的理论认识,为中国突破“技术封锁”提供了政策启示。Technological competition has emerged as the focal point of U.S.-China strategic rivalry.the United States has systematically mobilized and pressured its allies to establish multilateral technology controls against China in the semiconductor field.However,these allies have exhibited distinctly varied policy responses.This study reveals that the degree of semiconductor supply chain interdependence with China serves as the primary determinant of an ally's policy choices.Allies with substantial semiconductor supply chain interdependence with China maintain their autonomous position.For allies with moderate or limited interdependence,U.S.strategy differentiates according to their position within the semiconductor value chain:those in strategic segments face targeted diplomatic leverage,necessitating their adherence to U.S.-led technology controls,while those in peripheral segments encounter multilateral diplomatic engagement,resulting in selective implementation of control measures.

关 键 词：技术竞争 网络化制裁 半导体 产业嵌入程度 价值链区位 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]