黄河流域种植业碳排放的脱钩效应及影响因素分析  

Study on the Decoupling Effect and Drivers of Carbon Emissions from Plantations in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：索瑞霞[1] 王琪 张帆[2] 赵曾燕 SUO Ruixia;WANG Qi;ZHANG Fan;ZHAO Zengyan(College of Management,Xi´an University of Science and Technology,Xi´an 710054,China;College of Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710054 [2]东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第2期220-230,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(No.21YJA630050);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(No.22YJC630197)。

摘　　要：研究黄河流域种植业碳排放的脱钩效应及影响因素,有助于加强流域内的生态保护,推动农业高质量发展,促进黄河流域“双碳”目标的实现。本文采用碳排放系数法对2000-2021年黄河流域各省份种植业碳排放量进行测算,分析黄河流域种植业碳排放的时空演变特征,基于Tapio脱钩模型探讨黄河流域种植业碳排放与经济发展间的脱钩关系,并通过对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型对种植业碳排放的驱动因素进行分解。结果表明:①2000-2021年黄河流域种植业碳排放量累计增加了2998.89×10^(4)t,且整体呈先增后减的波动趋势,具体表现为快速增长-稳定增长-快速下降的三阶段变化特征。从碳源构成可知,农业物资投入是种植业碳排放的主要来源,且在种植业碳源中年均占比为73.28%。②黄河流域种植业碳排放存在显著的省际和区域性差异,河南省和青海省分别为黄河流域种植业碳排放量最高和最低的省份,两省份研究期内的碳排放峰值分别为4785.86×10^(4)、94.09×10^(4)t;且黄河流域种植业碳排放整体呈下游>上游>中游的分布特征。③黄河流域种植业经济增长与碳排放脱钩关系整体上表现为弱脱钩向强脱钩发展,是一种良好的发展态势,但各省份的脱钩效应间存在显著性差异。④能源结构和能源强度均抑制黄河流域种植业碳排放增长,而经济增长和人口规模因素则对种植业碳排放有正向促进作用。研究显示,黄河流域各省份种植业碳排放发展呈现明显不同,亟需制定差异性发展战略,以实现黄河流域种植业整体低碳化高质量发展。The decoupling effect and driving factors of plantation carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin are crucial for strengthening eco-protection,promoting high-quality rural development,and facilitating the realization of the‘double carbon’goal in the region.This study uses the carbon emission coefficient method to measure carbon emissions from the plantation industry across various provinces in the Yellow River Basin for 2000-2021,and analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of the plantation carbon emissions.The Tapio decoupling model is applied to explore the decoupling relationship between plantation carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin.Additionally,the main driving factors of plantation carbon emissions are analyzed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model.The results indicate that:(1)From 2000 to 2021,plantation carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin increased by 2998.89×10^(4)tons,showing an overall fluctuating trend characterized by four main phases:rapid growth,stable growth,rapid decline,and slow decline.Agricultural material inputs were the largest source of carbon emissions in the plantation industry,contributing an average of 73.28%annually.(2)There were significant inter-provincial and regional variations in plantation carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.Henan Province and Qinghai Province had the highest and lowest emissions,with peaks of 4785.86×10^(4)tons and 94.09×10^(4)tons in the study period,respectively.Carbon emissions from plantation agriculture in the Yellow River Basin followed a distribution pattern of downstream>upstream>midstream.(3)The decoupling relationship between economic growth and the plantation carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin generally evolved from weak to strong decoupling,indicating a positive development trend,although there were significant difference in the decoupling effects among provinces.(4)Energy structure and energy intensity negativelyinfluenced the development of carbon emissions from agriculture

关 键 词：黄河流域 种植业碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F302.5[经济管理—产业经济]