基于权重折衷的肯特评分法及其在油气管道评价中的应用  

Kent scoring method based on weight compromise and its application in oil and gas pipeline evaluation

作　　者：季成 庞贵良 张圣柱[2] 王旭 孙皓 李坤 张学萍 JI Cheng;PANG Guiliang;ZHANG Shengzhu;WANG Xu;SUN Hao;LI Kun;ZHANG Xueping(College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;PipeChina Western Pipeline Company,Urumqi Xinjiang 830011,China;PipeChina Gansu Company,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102249 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [3]国家管网集团西部管道公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [4]国家管网集团甘肃公司,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第S1期92-97,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3070100);中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2023JBKY18)

摘　　要：针对油气长输管道事故因素指标的多样性和复杂性,为了更加精准且客观地对风险进行评价,使用肯特评分法建立分层次的油气长输管道事故因素评价指标体系。该评价体系细分为4个主要因素和17个底因素。为了防止肯特评分法中指标权重不准确导致和实际管道情况产生偏差,引入专家评分并将其定量化,得到各因素的主观权重。通过对管道隐患数据进行统计,利用熵权法量化分析得到客观权重。结合主观权重与客观权重进行折衷处理,确定折衷权重,为后续的风险分级和风险防护提供数据基础。结合熵的TOPSIS安全评价方法建立基于折衷权重的多层次评价模型,并应用评价的结果进行实例分析。研究结果表明:通过本文方法修正后的权重更加符合数据来源企业的实际情况,可以以此为据提出管道事故的防护建议。Responding to the diversity and complexity of accident factor indicators for long⁃distance oil and gas pipelines,in order to evaluate risks more accurately and objectively,a hierarchical evaluation index system for accident factors of long⁃distance oil and gas pipelines using the Kent scoring method is established.The evaluation system is subdivided into 4 main factors and 17 bottom factors.In order to prevent deviation from the actual pipeline situation caused by inaccurate indicator weights in the Kent scoring method,expert ratings are introduced and quantified to obtain subjective weights for each factor.By statistically analyzing pipeline hazard data and quantitatively analyzing it using the entropy weight method,objective weights are obtained.By combining subjective and objective weights for compromise processing,determine the compromise weights are determined to provide a data foundation for subsequent risk classification and risk prevention.This paper combines the TOPSIS safety evaluation method with entropy to establish a multi⁃level evaluation model based on compromise weights,and applies the evaluation results for case analysis.The results indicate that the weights corrected by this method are more in line with the actual situation of the data source enterprise,and can be used as a basis for proposing protective suggestions for pipeline accidents.

关 键 词：油气管道 肯特法 熵权法 折衷权重 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]