基于Concawe数据库的管道失效概率修正方法研究  

Research on pipeline failure probability correction method based on Concawe database

作　　者：路乾 赵东风[1] 康波 王旭 张圣柱[3] 王向阳 LU Qian;ZHAO Dongfeng;KANG Bo;WANG Xu;ZHANG Shengzhu;WANG Xiangyang(College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Huadong),Qingdao Shandong 266580,China;Dushanzi Oil and Gas Transportation Branch of Western Pipeline Company of China Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Corporation,Karamay Xinjiang 833600,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)化学化工学院,山东青岛266580 [2]国家管网集团西部管道独山子输油气分公司,新疆克拉玛依833600 [3]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第S1期85-91,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2023JBKY18)

摘　　要：为增强风险评估工作的准确性,确保管道风险评估的结果更加真实,通过参考Concawe长输油品管道数据库,整理其从1971—2021年油品管道泄漏事故的历史数据,采用数据处理方法提出机械性故障、误操作、腐蚀、自然力破坏、第三方破坏5个失效因素,开展对基础失效概率的计算;跳出传统将数据内容向定量指标全盘转化的思路,分别运用数据拟合和模糊数学的方法对失效数据的修正因子进行计算。研究结果表明:所提出的风险评估模型能够使管道风险评估的结果更加准确。研究结果可为建立原油长输管道失效概率评估修正模型提供思路,并对管道风险评估工作和相关研究提供借鉴。To enhance the accuracy and authenticity of pipeline risk assessments,this paper draws upon the Concawe longdistance oil pipeline database,compiling historical data on oil pipeline leakage accidents from 1971 to 2021.Utilizing data processing techniques,we identify 5 key failure factors:mechanical failure,misoperation,corrosion,natural force damage,and third⁃party damage.These factors are used to calculate the baseline failure probability.Breaking away from the traditional approach of converting data content into quantitative indicators,we apply data fitting and the integral mean value theorem to calculate the correction factor for failure data.The results show that the proposed risk assessment model significantly improves the accuracy of pipeline risk assessments.This finding offers valuable insights for developing refined models for assessing the failure probability of long⁃distance crude oil pipelines.Furthermore,it serves as a useful reference for pipeline risk assessment and related research in China.

关 键 词：原油管道 失效因素 修正因子 风险评估 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] TP311.13[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]