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作 者:冯少波 胥志雄[5] 刘洪涛 孟祥娟 李凯欣 张宝[1,2,3,4] 郑文培 FENG Shaobo;XU Zhixiong;LIU Hongtao;MENG Xiangjuan;LI Kaixin;ZHANG Bao;ZHENG Wenpei(R&D Center for Ultra⁃deep Complex Reservoirs Exploration and Development Technology,China National Petroleum Corporation,Korla Xinjiang 841000,China;Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Engineering Research Center for Ultra⁃deep Complex Reservoirs Exploration and Development,Korla Xinjiang 841000,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Ultra⁃deep Oil and Gas,Korla Xinjiang 841000,China;PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company,Korla Xinjiang 841000,China;PetroChina Western Drilling Engineering Co,Ltd.,Karamay Xinjiang 834000,China;College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102200,China;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Safety and Emergency Technology,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 102200,China)
机构地区:[1]中国石油天然气集团有限公司超深层复杂油气藏勘探开发技术研发中心,新疆库尔勒841000 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区超深层复杂油气藏勘探开发工程研究中心,新疆库尔勒841000 [3]新疆超深油气重点实验室,新疆库尔勒841000 [4]中国石油塔里木油田分公司,新疆库尔勒841000 [5]中国石油西部钻探工程有限公司,新疆克拉玛依834000 [6]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102200 [7]应急管理部油气生产安全与应急技术重点实验室,北京102200
出 处:《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第S1期46-53,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology
摘 要:为了保证特高压井口的远程控制、信号传输和通讯功能在役全过程良好实现并风险可控,本文采用“风险辨识—事件树分析—不确定性分析”3步结合的风险分析方法,辨识井口远程终端控制系统涉及风险源,确定各失效模式发生频率,针对评估结果中重要危险场景进行不确定性分析,判断其失效概率的波动情况。研究结果表明:特高压井口远程终端控制系统中控功能风险在可接受范围内,本文使用的风险分析方法能直观定量识别出系统内重要风险点,并给出相应建议。To ensure that the remote control,signal transmission and communication functions of the ultra⁃high⁃pressure(UHP)wellhead are well realized and the risks are controllable,this paper adopts a analysis method combining“Risk identification-ETA-Uncertainty analysis”to identify the risk sources related to the UHP wellhead remote terminal unit(RTU)control system,determine the frequency of each failure mode,and analyze the uncertainty of the important danger scenarios in the assessment results to judge the fluctuation of its failure probability.The results show that the risk of the central control function of the UHP wellhead RTU control system is within the acceptable range,and the risk analysis method used in this paper can intuitively and quantitatively identify the important risk points in the system and give corresponding suggestions.
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