基于改进RVA法的长江上游干流水文情势变化研究  

Study on hydrological regime change of Changjiang River upper main stream based on improved RVA method

作　　者：米国新 王丽 路嘉 陈俊文 张鹏[1,2] 杨胜发 MI Guoxin;WANG Li;LU Jia;CHEN Junwen;ZHANG Peng;YANG Shengfa(College of River and Ocean Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;National Engineering Research Center of Inland Waterway Regulation,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学河海学院,重庆400074 [2]国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心,重庆400074

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2025年第2期14-21,共8页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42007213);重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2021jcyj-jqX0009);重庆市研究生导师团队建设项目(JDDSTD2022001)。

摘　　要：长江上游梯级水库群的联合调度会改变下游水文情势,对河流生态系统产生影响。通过M-K检验、滑动t检验法、累计距平统计量法对长江上游朱沱站1956~2022年日均流量序列进行趋势及突变检验,选取水文变化指标法的水文参数,利用水文变化幅度(RVA)法和改进水文变化幅度法定量评估朱沱站径流序列的变化程度。结果表明:朱沱站年径流量呈不显著下降趋势,并在2005年发生突变。原有RVA法评估朱沱站径流序列变异程度为48.81%,改进RVA法评估改变度为56.54%,均表现为中等程度变化。水库群对朱沱站水文情势的主要影响体现为1~5月份及11~12月份流量增加,6~10月份流量减少。突变后年最小流量远大于天然径流状态,年最小流量也提前出现;低流量历时显著减少;流量逆转次数增加。研究成果可为长江上游流域水生态系统保护及水资源合理开发提供参考。Joint operation of reservoir groups in the upper reaches of Changjiang River will inevitably change the downstream hydrological situation and affect the river ecosystem.Mann-Kendall test,slide t test and cumulative anomaly statistical method were used to test the trend and sudden change of daily average discharge series from 1956 to 2022 at Zhutuo Station in the upstream of Changjiang River.The hydrological parameters of the hydrological change index method were selected,and the change degree of runoff sequence in Zhutuo Station was quantitatively evaluated by the Range of Variability Approach(RVA)method and the improved RVA method.The results showed that the average annual runoff of Zhutuo Station showed an insignificant downward trend,and there was a sudden change in 2005.The variation degree of the original Hydrological change index method to assess the runoff sequence of Zhutuo Station was 48.81%,and the variation degree of the improved method to assess the runoff sequence was 56.54%,showing a moderately change.The main impact of reservoir groups on the hydrological situation of Zhutuo Station was the discharge increase from January to May and from November to December,and the discharge decreased from June to October.After the sudden change,the average annual flow was far greater than the natural runoff,and the minimum flow also occurred in advance.The time of low flow was significantly reduced,and the number of reversals increased.This results can provide a reference for the protection of water ecosystem and rational development of water resources in the upper reaches of Changjiang River.

关 键 词：改进RVA法 水文变化指标法 水文变化幅度法 水库群联合调度 朱沱站 长江上游 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]