基于粮食安全的中国耕地保护阈值研究  

China’s cultivated land threshold from the perspective of food security

作　　者：赵晓宇 孙春强 崔荣国 陈静 张晓钰 曹庭语 李超 ZHAO Xiaoyu;SUN Chunqiang;CUI Rongguo;CHEN Jing;ZHANG Xiaoyu;CAO Tingyu;LI Chao(Information Center of Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100036,China;China Land Surveying and Planning Institute,Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部信息中心,北京100036 [2]中国国土勘测规划院,北京100035

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第12期2355-2366,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42471300);国家社会科学基金项目(22BFX132)。

摘　　要：【目的】耕地是国家粮食安全的基石。在中国居民膳食结构明显变化、人口数量减少、资源环境硬约束没有改变的背景下,开展以满足中国居民多样化食物需求和营养健康为目标的新时代中国耕地保护阈值研究,对保障国家粮食安全和实施健康中国战略意义重大。【方法】结合膳食平衡法测算的年人均粮食需求量,构建兼顾人口、人均粮食需求、粮食自给率、粮食单产的耕地保护阈值测度模型,分析2021年全国及各农业生态区耕地最低需求量和耕地赤字盈余状况,并基于当前粮食单产水平和未来人口变化预测分析2035年、2050年中国耕地最低需求量。【结果】①2021年中国人均粮食需求量范围约为420.0~497.1 kg。②运用耕地保护阈值测度模型得出,2021年中国人均耕地阈值约为0.07~0.09 hm^(2),2021年中国耕地最低需求量约为10525.34万~12530.17万hm^(2);在不同年人均粮食需求量下,耕地赤字盈余整体表现为随人均粮食需求量的增加,耕地盈余减少、赤字上升,各农业生态区耕地赤字盈余呈明显的地域差异性,其中东北区耕地盈余最高,江南区和华南区耕地赤字最高。③按照当前粮食单产水平,预计2035年中国耕地最低需求量约为10141.68万~12073.42万hm^(2),2050年约为9533.61万~11349.53万hm^(2)。【结论】依照目前耕地减少速率,预计到2035年中国耕地总量可能突破耕地最低需求量高值,2050年仅能达到年人均粮食需求量中等水平下的耕地最低需求量,中国未来耕地保护形势非常严峻。建议进一步改进最严格的耕地保护制度和节约集约用地制度,以农业生态区为基础,科学设定耕地保护政策单元,立足不同地区资源禀赋,因地制宜实施差异化的耕地保护政策措施。同时,结合主体功能区划构建跨区域、多层次一体化的耕地横向协同保护体系,以高水平保护促进区域协调发展,为端牢中国饭碗奠定�[Objective]Cultivated land serves as the cornerstone of national food security.Under the background of significant changes in dietary consumption structure and population in China and the rising resources and environmental constraints,it is imperative to investigate China’s cultivated land threshold in the new era to meet diverse food and nutrition needs of Chinese residents.[Methods]This study started from measuring the annual per capita grain demand using the Prandial Balance method.On this basis,a cultivated land threshold calculation model was constructed,taking into account factors such as population,per capita grain demand,food self-sufficiency rate,and grain yield per unit cultivated area.Then,the minimum demand and deficit(or surplus)of cultivated land at the national and agroecological region levels was measured for 2021.Furthermore,the minimum demand of China’s cultivated land in 2035 and 2050 was predicted based on the grain yield per unit cultivated area and population change.[Results](1)China’s annual per capita grain demand ranges from 420.0 kg to 497.1 kg in 2021.(2)According to the cultivated land threshold calculation model,per capita threshold of cultivated land in 2021 ranges from 0.07 hm^(2) to 0.09 hm^(2).The minimum demand of China’s cultivated land in 2021 ranges from 105.2534 million hm^(2) to 125.3017 million hm^(2).Cultivated land deficit and surplus in agroecological regions reflect obvious regional differences.Cultivated land surplus in Northeast China is the highest,while cultivated land deficit in areas south of the Yangtze River and South China is the highest.Cultivated land surplus decreases and cultivated land deficit increases with the rise of per capita grain demand.(3)Under the premise that the current grain yield per unit cultivated area is unchanged,minimum demand of China’s cultivated land is expected to be between 101.4168 million hm^(2) and 120.7342 million hm^(2) in 2035,and 95.3361 million hm^(2) and 113.4953 million hm^(2) in 2050.[Conclusion]Given the current

关 键 词：耕地保护 粮食安全 健康中国 耕地阈值 人均粮食需求量 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11