地震发生率指数对川滇地区强震的预报效能研究  

Assessing Earthquake Prediction Performance Based on Seismicity Rate Index in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

作　　者：姜祥华 刘杰[1] 孟令媛[1] 韩颜颜[1] 陈佳维 JIANG Xianghua;LIU Jie;MENG Lingyuan;HAN Yanyan;CHEN Jiawei(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京100085

出　　处：《地震研究》2025年第2期253-263,共11页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000705);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2018-04)。

摘　　要：应用地震发生率指数方法对2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日川滇地区发生的11次强震开展了震例回溯研究,发现地震前兆主要表现为在强震前不到半年内震中附近小震活动出现显著增强。不同时空预测参数下的预报效能评价结果显示,地震发生率指数对川滇地区的强震具有短期预报能力。当预测半径为90 km、预测时长为80 d时,地震发生率指数的预报效能最佳,R值评分约为0.60,显著性水平α约为0.000 06。This paper presents a new method referred to as the seismicity rate index(SRI)for quantitatively analyzing seismic quiescence and activity,which is based on Poisson distribution.We applied this method to a retrospective case study of 11 strong earthquakes which occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region from January 1,2014 to December 31,2023.We found that the precursor mainly manifested as a significant increase in seismicity rate near the epicenter less than half a year before the main shock.The SRI's prediction performance was assessed based on different spatiotemporal prediction parameters.Results show that SRI has good performance on short-term prediction of strong earthquakes in the study region.On the condition that the prediction radius is 90 km and the prediction duration is 80 days,SRI would have the best prediction performance,with the R score of about O.60 and a significance level of about 0.00006.

关 键 词：地震发生率指数 地震增强 地震平静 地震预测 预报效能 川滇地区 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]