华北地区地震风险概率预测及预报效能检验  

Probabilistic Prediction of the Earthquake Risk in North China and Test of Forecast Efficiency

作　　者：李冬梅[1] 郑建常[1] 苑争一 LI Dongmei;ZHENG Jianchang;YUAN Zhengyi(Shandong Earthquake Agency,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,山东济南250014 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《地震研究》2025年第2期281-288,共8页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：山东省地震局科研基金项目(JJ1805Y);国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700-02)。

摘　　要：基于中国地震台网记录到的地震目录,应用时间相依的地震复发间隔混合概率模型,开展华北地区中小地震的中、短期概率预测研究,计算并绘制未来3个月、半年、1年内华北地区发生3、4级以上中小地震的概率分布云图。检验结果显示,3、4级以上中小地震基本都发生在此前给出的地震风险概率相对高的区域。研究认为,该方法在日常地震分析工作中应用效果较好,可为震情趋势分析判定提供强有力支撑依据。基于2021年和2022年华北地区地震风险概率预测结果,应用Molchan图表法检验该预测模型的预报效能,显示其有较好的预测能力,可以合理有效地估算地震的发生概率。Earthquake risk probability analysis is an effective means to quantify the seismic hazard.On the basis of the earthquake catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center,we use the time-dependent mixed probabilistic prediction model of seismic recurrence interval to predict the probability of small-and medium-scale earthquakes in short and medium term in North China.Then we calculate the probability of 3-magnitude and 4-magnitude earthquakes in the following 3 months,6 months,and 12 months in North China and further draw the cloud map of the probability.We find that the 3-magnitude and 4-magnitude earthquakes occur in the earthquake risk zones with relatively high probability we predicted.This proves that the prediction model is effective for earthquake prediction in our daily consultation and can help analyze and judge the earthquake trend in North China.Based on the predicted earthquake risk probability in North China in 2021 and 2022,we use the Molchan chart to test this prediction model,and find that it is effective for estimating the probability of earthquake occurrence and for monitoring and tracking the earthquake trend.

关 键 词：混合概率模型 地震预报 Molchan检验 效能评价 华北地区 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]