人口老龄化对城市经济发展的影响——基于“量”与“质”的考察  

The Impact of Population Aging on the Urban Economic Development:Based on the “Quantity” and “Quality” Investigation

作　　者：马琦峰 赵越[1] 王曼茹 郝勇 MA Qifeng;ZHAO Yue;WANG Manru;HAO Yong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872 [2]上海师范大学天华学院,上海200234 [3]上海师范大学社会保障与社会政策研究中心,上海200234

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2025年第1期141-153,共13页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国医养结合优化模式筛选及推进医养结合全覆盖对策研究”子课题5“医养结合全覆盖的推进方案、实现路径与对策”(20&ZD114),子课题负责人:郝勇。

摘　　要：基于中国2000—2020年的五期城市面板数据,运用固定效应、门槛效应模型,从经济发展的“量”与“质”出发,探究人口老龄化对城市经济发展的基准影响、作用机制及内在差异。研究发现:(1)人口老龄化仅会抑制城市经济发展水平,并不会影响城市经济发展质量;(2)人口老龄化对城市经济发展的影响并非是完全线性的,老龄化水平在未达到9.96%前其抑制作用并不存在;(3)阻碍产业结构升级与科技创新是人口老龄化影响城市经济发展的重要动因,而促进劳动要素投入则有助于削弱人口老龄化的经济抑制效应;(4)人口老龄化对城市经济发展的影响因城市空间区位与发展定位不同而呈现出差异性。因此,建议正视老龄化的经济影响,实施更积极的人口政策;推动产业结构转型升级,培育城市科技创新能力;加强员工人力资本积累,开发利用老年人力资源;发挥政府的主观能动性,因地制宜制定配套政策。Based on five periods(every five years) of China's urban panel data from 2000 to 2020,using fixed effect and threshold effect models, this study explores the baseline impact, mechanisms, and inherent differences of population aging on the economic development of cities from the perspectives of both“quantity”and“quality”of economic.The research findings indicate that population aging only restrains the level of economic development and does not affect the quality of economic development.The impact of population aging on the economic development is not entirely linear, as the inhibitory effect does not exist until the aging level reaches 9.96%.Impeding industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation are significant factors influencing the impact of population aging on the economic development, while promoting labor input helps mitigate the economic inhibitory effect of population aging.The impact of population aging on the economic development varies depending on the spatial location and development orientation of cities.Therefore, it is suggested to acknowledge the economic impact of aging and implement more proactive population policies, promoting industrial structural transformation and upgrading, nurturing technological innovation capabilities, strengthening the accumulation of human capital among employees, and harnessing the resources of elderly labor are recommended actions.Moreover, leveraging the proactive role of the government to formulate tailored policies according to local conditions is essential.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 城市经济 经济发展水平 经济发展质量 门槛回归 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学] F061.3