面向电力保供的燃煤发电成本预测研究  

Research on Coal-fired Power Generation CostPrediction for Power Supply Guarantee

作　　者：邵筱宇 杨敏 任曦骏 叶钰童 王晗[2] Shao Xiaoyu;Yang Min;Ren Xijun;Ye Yutong;Wang Han(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hefei Anhui 230022,China;Key Laboratory of Power Transmission and Conversion under Ministry of Education,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,安徽合肥230022 [2]电器传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海200240

出　　处：《电气自动化》2025年第1期68-71,共4页Electrical Automation

摘　　要：“十四五”经济社会快速发展,电力需求持续增长,燃煤发电承担着保障电力安全供应的重要任务。针对保供风险,提出一种考虑煤电成本预测方法。通过确认电煤价格影响因素,构建燃煤发电项目全生命周期成本及收入模型,设计燃煤机组运行情景和价格情景,建立基于长短期记忆的电煤价格预测模型以及基于平准化度电成本的燃煤发电成本中短期预测模型,以实现对煤电成本的精准预测。仿真结果发现:长短期记忆模型对电煤价格的预测效果良好,各影响因子中煤价对煤电成本的影响程度最大,碳价、灵活性改造、提前退役次之。研究成果填补了煤电成本预测的空白,为及时感知应对电力保供风险提供了技术支撑。During the 14th Five Year Plan period,the economy and society have developed rapidly,and the demand for electricity has continued to grow.Coal fired power generation plays an important role in ensuring the safe supply of electricity.A method was proposed for predicting coal-electricity cost in response to supply guarantee risks.By identifying the factors influencing the price of coal-electricity,a cost and revenue model was constructed for the entire lifecycle of coal-fired power generation projects,operating and pricing scenarios were designed for coal-fired generation units,a coal-electricity price prediction model was established based on long short-term memory,as well as a medium to short-term prediction model for coal-fired power generation cost based on levelized electricity cost,in order to achieve accurate prediction of coal-fired power generation cost.The simulation results show that the long short-term memory model has a good prediction effect on the price of coal-fired power generation.Among the influencing factors,the coal price has the greatest impact on the cost of coal-fired power generation,followed by carbon emission reduction price,flexible equipment transformation and early decommissioning.The research results fill the gap in predicting the cost of coal-fired power generation and provide technical support for timely perception and response to power supply guarantee risks.

关 键 词：电力安全保供 长短期记忆 电煤价格预测 平准化度电成本 燃煤发电机组情景 燃煤发电成本预测 

分 类 号：TM611[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]