农业产业链韧性、区域差异及动态演进  

Agricultural Industry Chain Resilience,Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution

作　　者：吕雅辉 袁佳伟 张斯琪 史景宁 Lyu Yahui;Yuan Jiawei;Zhang Siqi;Shi Jingning(College of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University;Rural Revitalization Research Center of Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding Hebei 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院 [2]河北农业大学乡村振兴研究中心,河北保定071000

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第3期87-93,共7页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(23CJY057)。

摘　　要：文章结合农业产业链运行机理和特征,从断裂韧性、冲击韧性、演化韧性三个维度构建了农业产业链韧性评价指标体系,并运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计等测算了2010—2022年我国农业产业链韧性及其区域差异和动态演进特征。结果表明:我国农业产业链韧性虽然呈上升趋势,但是整体水平偏低;我国农业产业链韧性区域发展不平衡,无论是整体水平还是不同维度的耦合协调度,均呈现东部地区>中部地区>东北地区>西部地区的格局;随着时间推移,地区间差异呈上升趋势,是造成农业产业链韧性总体差异的主要原因;全国及各地区农业产业链韧性的绝对差异在逐渐扩大。Based on the operating mechanism and characteristics of the agricultural industry chain,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural industry chain resilience from the three dimensions of fracture resilience,impact resilience and evolution resilience,and then uses entropy method,coupling coordination degree model,Dagum Gini coefficient,and kernel density estimation to calculate China’s agricultural industry chain resilience,its regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics from 2010 to 2022.The research results go as follows:Although China’s agricultural industry chain resilience is on the rise;the overall level is relatively low.The regional development of China’s agricultural industry chain resilience is unbalanced;both the overall level and the coupling coordination degree in different dimensions show a pattern of eastern region>central region>northeastern region>western region.With the passage of time,inter-regional differences show an upward trend,which is the main reason for the overall differences in agricultural industry chain resilience.The absolute difference in the agricultural industry chain resilience across the country and regions is gradually widening.

关 键 词：农业产业链韧性 熵值法 Dagum基尼系数 核密度估计 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]