银行部门扩张、市场竞争与出口模式分化之谜  

Banking Sector Expansion,Market Competition and Export Mode Polarisation of China’s Industrial Enterprises

作　　者：司登奎 宋敏 刘贯春 胡浩然 Si Dengkui;Song Min;Liu Guanchun;Hu Haoran

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]中山大学岭南学院,510275 [4]中山大学中观经济学研究院,510275 [5]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2025年第1期3-29,共27页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(22BJY184)的资助。

摘　　要：在当前中国出口局势面临诸多挑战的背景下,如何依靠金融改革力量推动对外贸易高质量发展显得尤为重要。本文构建一个包含产品数量和质量的双寡头市场竞争博弈模型,以原中国银行业监督管理委员会关于放松城商行异地设立分支机构管制的规定构造了准自然实验,深入探究了中小商业银行部门扩张如何塑造不同规模企业在出口模式上的分化。研究发现,中小商业银行部门扩张有助于增加规模以下企业的出口数量,由此形成的市场竞争效应会引发规模以上企业减少出口数量进而提升产品质量。此外,市场集中度和出口三元分解维度的机制检验,诠释了中小商业银行部门扩张的非对称信贷冲击会加剧规模以下与规模以上企业间的竞争效应。本文为健全多层次金融体系、助力贸易强国建设、服务中国式现代化发展提供了启示。The export-oriented strategy is a crucial and decisive choice in China's economic development process,significantly contributing to the country's sustained economic growth and the steady expansion of its employment,and shaping its corporate competitiveness.In the context of the new development paradigm,exploring how to achieve stable and high-quality export growth is not only essential to innovating export development strategies,improving the quality of export products,and optimising supply chain management to promote steady and sustained trade growth,but also to deepening international economic and trade cooperation,supporting China's greater participation in global industrial specialisation and cooperation,and cultivating advantages in international competition.This paper first constructs a duopoly market competition game model that includes both product quantity and quality,theoretically revealing how the expansion of small and medium-sized commercial banks shapes the differentiation in export modes among enterprises of different scales.It then uses the former China Banking Regulatory Commission's document no.143,which relaxes restrictions on urban commercial banks establishing branches in other regions,as a quasi-natural experiment.The experiment,combined with data from Chinese industrial enterprises and customs,validates theoretical inferences.The results show that the expansion of small and medium-sized commercial banks helps to increase the volume exported by smaller enterprises.The competition effect on the market leads larger enterprises to reduce their export volume while enhancing the quality of their products,resulting in a differentiated export mode.Market concentration and the three-way decomposition of exports explain how asymmetric credit shocks from the expansion of small and medium-sized commercial banks intensify competitive effects among different types of enterprises.The marginal contribution of this work is reflected as follows.First,the asymmetric credit shock attribute of the expansion of

关 键 词：银行部门扩张 市场竞争 出口模式分化 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F752.62