传统金融与早期工业化:票号与近代商办企业建立的证据  

Traditional Finance and Early Industrialisation:Evidence from Piaohao and Modern Private Corporate Establishment

作　　者：何石军 都帅帅 黄桂田 He Shijun;Du Shuaishuai;Huang Guitian

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]山西大学晋商学研究所经济与管理学院晋商学与区域经济发展协同创新中心,030031

出　　处：《世界经济》2025年第1期90-121,共32页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173092);教育部人文社科青年项目(19XJC790007);用友公益基金会“商的长城”项目([2021]B02)的资助。

摘　　要：已有研究大都认为中国近代传统金融组织由于将多数资本投入非生产性部门阻碍了近代企业进步,是引起中西大分流的一大原因。本文基于1800-1911年中国票号和商办企业府级的面板数据,采用交错双重差分方法研究发现,票号有效促进了其所在府建立近代商办企业,相当于无票号府各类因素总作用的71.63%。票号的信贷供给、与钱庄合作及对跨区业务的促进,是票号促进近代商办企业建立的3个渠道。票号虽在1911年后逐渐消亡,但仍通过促进近代银行发展持续影响商办企业的建立。本研究提供了传统金融机构助力中国早期工业化的证据,以及新兴市场从金融角度助力企业进入的历史经验。Existing financial studies mostly suggest that in the modern era China's traditional financial institutions have hindered the progress of enterprises by channelling most of their capital into non-productive sectors.This is one of the main reasons why there is considered to be a great divergence between China and the West.In this context,this paper first manually compiles a dataset of piaohaos(draft banks,a type of traditional Chinese financial institution)and commercial enterprises at the prefecture level.Then,taking advantage of the variations in the establishment of these piaohaos,it employs a staggered difference-in-differences(DID)design and quantitatively analyses the short-and long-term impact of piaohaos on the establishment of modern commercial enterprises.Using panel data from between 1800 and 1911,the paper examines the short-term impact and finds that the presence of piaohaos leads to an average increase of approximately 0.0090 new modern commercial enterprises in the prefectures where they are established.This increase is equivalent to 71.63%of the total promotional effect on commercial enterprises observed in prefectures without piaohaos.The conclusions are shown to be valid through a set of parallel trend tests,a series of robustness checks and other competing hypotheses tests.In the endogeneity tests,the paper reveals that state governance capacity can influence the establishment of piaohaos.It also demonstrates from two different perspectives that the state's governance capacity does not negate the role played by the piaohaos in promoting the establishment of modern commercial enterprises.The results of the estimation obtained by both the PSM-DID method and the instrumental variables approach similarly support these conclusions.The heterogeneity analysis shows the following findings.(i)Prefectures located at the hubs of railway networks tend to attract the establishment of more commercial enterprises.(ii)In prefectures with a stronger economic foundation,the role of piaohaos in promoting the estab

关 键 词：传统金融 票号 商办企业 量化研究 

分 类 号：K249[历史地理—历史学] F429[历史地理—中国史] F832.9[经济管理—产业经济]