基于MaxEnt模型的药用植物灯盏花在中国的潜在适生区研究  

Potential Suitable Growth Areas of Medicinal Plant Erigeron breviscapus in China Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：彭佳 官会林[1] 张云峰[2] 普勇福 王豪吉 陈鹏崟 徐武美 PENG Jia;GUAN Huilin;ZHANG Yunfeng;PU Yongfu;WANG Haoji;CHEN Pengyin;XU Wumei(Yunnan Provincial Observation and Research Station of Soil Degradation and Restoration for Cultivating Plateau Traditional Chinese Medicinal Plants,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;School of Life Sciences,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学高原特色中药材种植土壤质量演变退化与修复云南省野外科学观测研究站,云南昆明650500 [2]云南师范大学生命科学学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《中国野生植物资源》2025年第1期117-123,共7页Chinese Wild Plant Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31960066);云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才项目(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0247);云南省院士专家工作站(202305AF150027、YSZJGZZ-2021062)。

摘　　要：目的:预测气候变化背景下药用植物灯盏花在中国的潜在适生区,为其人工种植选址与规划提供科学依据。方法:本研究基于标本数据库并结合实地调查共获得灯盏花在中国的自然分布点164个,从22个环境因子中选取Spearman相关系数小于0.75的8个环境因子,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,预测当前气候环境与两种气候变化情景下(SSP 1-2.6和SSP 5-8.5)灯盏花在中国的潜在适生区及主要影响因素。应用地理信息系统(ArcGIS)软件对灯盏花适生区进行划分。结果:灯盏花在中国的适生区主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、重庆、广西、西藏、江西和福建等地,约占全国总面积的9.6%,其中云南中部与北部、四川南部等地为高适生区,贵州大部分地区为中度适生区;气温年较差(Bio7)与最冷季平均温度(Bio11)是影响灯盏花自然分布的关键气候因子。在两种气候变化情景下,预测到2030年,灯盏花在中国的适生区将减少约0.65~0.74×10^(5) km^(2),到2070年将减少约1.07~1.27×10^(5) km^(2),特别是四川东部等地区将不再适宜灯盏花生长,且高温室气体排放情景下(SSP 5-8.5),预测到2070年,灯盏花在云南的适生区将向北收缩。结论:灯盏花主要分布在云南中部与北部、四川南部与贵州大部分地区,气候变化将导致灯盏花适生区收缩,在人工种植选址中需要引起注意。Objective:To predict the potential suitable growth areas of medicinal plant Erigeron breviscapus under climate change,and provide scientific basis for site selection and planning in artificial cultivation.Methods:The distribution points of E.breviscapus were obtained from field investigation and specimen database.Eight environmental factors with Spearman correlation coefficient less than 0.75 were obtained from a set of 22 environmental variables.The potential suitable growth areas of E.breviscapus in China under current climate environment and two climate change scenarios(SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5)were predicted using MaxEnt model,and the main influencing factors were explored.The geographic information system(ArcGIS)software was used to divide the suitable growth area of E.breviscapus.Results:The suitable growth areas for E.breviscapus in China were mainly distributed in Yunnan,Guizhou,Sichuan,Chongqing,Guangxi,Xizang,Jiangxi,and Fujian provinces,accounting for~9.6%of the total national area.Among them,the central and northern Yunnan and southern Sichuan were highly suitable areas,while most parts of Guizhou were moderately suitable for the growth of E.breviscapus.Temperature annual range(Bio7)and mean temperature of coldest quarter(Bio11)were key climate factors determining the natural distribution of E.breviscapus.Under the two climate change scenarios,it was predicted that by 2030,the suitable areas for E.breviscapus in China would decrease by approximately,0.65~0.74×10^(5) km^(2),and by 2070,it was predicted to decrease by approximately 1.07~1.27×10^(5) km^(2).Particularly,eastern Sichuan was predicted to be unsuitable for the growth of E.breviscapus under climate change.In addition,under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario(SSP 5-8.5),it was predicted that the suitable growth areas of E.breviscapus in Yunnan would contract northward by 2070.Conclusion:E.breviscapus was mainly distributed in the central and northern Yunnan,southern Sichuan,and most parts of Guizhou.Climate change would lead to a contra

关 键 词：灯盏花 最大熵模型 适生区 气候变化 

分 类 号：R282.5[医药卫生—中药学]