Carbon Emission Effects of Land Use Structure Changes and Their Driving Factors:A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,China  

土地利用结构变化的碳排放效应及其驱动因素分析——以长江中游城市群为例

作　　者：YIN Chuanbin ZENG Si LIU Dan 尹传斌;曾思;刘旦(江西财经大学信息管理与数学学院,南昌330032;江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,南昌330013)

机构地区：[1]School of Information Management and Mathematics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330032,China [2]School of Finance and Public Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2025年第1期132-147,共16页资源与生态学报(英文版)

基　　金：The National Social Science Foundation of China(20CJY011);The Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects of Jiangxi Provincial Universities(JJ19208)。

摘　　要：Land use structure is an important factor affecting carbon emissions.Taking the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River(MRYRUA)as an example,this study uses transfer matrix,the carbon emission coefficient method,spatial analyses and geo-detectors to analyze the carbon emission effects of land use changes,as well as their spatial evolutionary characteristics and driving factors,based on the data of 31 cities during 2010-2020.This analysis led to three outcomes.(1)The carbon sinks are insufficient to counterbalance the carbon sources,and net carbon emissions continued to grow from 144.88 million t in 2010 to 160.37 million t in 2020 due to the expansion of construction land.(2)The high-value areas of net carbon emissions shifted from dispersed to concentrated,while low-value areas shifted from concentrated to dispersed and decreased in number.The spatial agglomeration pattern is dominated by High-High agglomeration(H-H)and Low-Low agglomeration(L-L)areas.(3)The spatial differentiation of carbon emissions from land use(LUCEs)is primarily influenced by population density,carbon emission intensity,and technological innovation.Moreover,the interactive effects of land use,energy-efficient technologies,population status,industrial structure,and economic development significantly amplify their individual impacts.土地利用结构变化是影响碳排放的重要因素。本研究以长江中游城市群为例,利用土地利用转移矩阵、碳排放系数法、空间分析和地理探测器等方法,基于2010-2020年31个城市的能源消费数据、土地利用数据、人口数据以及相关经济发展数据等,分析了土地利用变化的碳排放效应、时空间演变特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)研究期间长江中游城市群的碳汇不足以抵消碳源,净碳排放量从2010年的1.4488亿吨增长到2020年的1.6037亿吨,建设用地的扩张是主要原因。(2)长江中游城市群净碳排放的高值区域从分散转向集中,而低值区域则从集中转向分散并数量减少。空间集聚模式主要由高-高集聚(H-H)和低-低集聚(L-L)所主导。(3)土地利用结构变化引起碳排放的空间差异主要受人口密度、碳排放强度和技术创新的影响。此外,土地利用、节能技术、人口状况、产业结构和经济发展的交互作用显著放大了它们各自的影响。

关 键 词：carbon emissions land use structure driving factors MRYRUA 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]