基于TERGM方法的全球旅游服务贸易网络动态演化及形成机制  

Dynamic evolution and formation mechanism of global tourism service trade network based on TERGM

作　　者：王娟[1,2] 马红梅 Wang Juan;Ma Hongmei(College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China;Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第1期176-188,共13页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MG065);国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BGL134)资助。

摘　　要：基于2001-2019年WTO-OECD平衡服务贸易数据库(BaTIS),运用复杂网络分析考察全球201个国家(地区)间旅游服务贸易网络的拓扑结构、空间结构和社团结构动态演化特征,运用时间指数随机图模型(TERGM)分析网络的演化及形成机制。结果表明:全球旅游服务贸易网络规模逐渐扩大,呈现出典型的“小世界”特征;中国的“桥梁”中介作用日益突出,控制力和影响力逐渐加强;全球旅游服务贸易网络在不同时期呈现不同的组团特征,形成以美国、英国和中国为核心的3大稳定社团。旅游服务贸易联系的区域差异明显,整体网络格局呈现“一超多强”特征,亚太地区发展迅速。全球旅游服务贸易网络存在互惠效应、等级效应和时间依赖效应,经济发展水平、人口规模、国(地区)界相邻、语言邻近和自由贸易协定关系能显著促进旅游服务贸易关系的形成,且相对于高贸易规模国家(地区)而言,低贸易规模的国家(地区)之间倾向于开展旅游服务贸易。An in-depth understanding of the evolutionary characteristics and formation mech-anism of the global tourism service trade network has an important enlightenment effect on China’s ability to enhance the competitiveness of service trade.Based on the data of bilateral tourism service trade of 201 countries from 2001 to 2019 in the WTO-OECD Balanced Trade in Services Database(BaTIS),this thesis Uses Complex Network Analysis and Temporal Expo-nenTial Random Graph Model(TERGM)to study the dynamic evolution characteristics of to-pological structure,spatial structure and the community structure,and the evolution mechanism of the network.The results found that:1)The global tourism service trade relations between countries are becoming increasingly deepened,and the trade network has small world attributes.China has played a prominent bridge role,its position in the global tourism service trade net-work has significantly improved,indicating that China’s control over global tourism resources and markets is gradually strengthening.2)The global tourism service trade network exhibits different group characteristics at different time.There are mainly 3 stable communities in the global tourism service trade network,which are dominated by the United States,the United Kingdom and China.3)Tourism service trade relations have obvious regional differences,showing the network pattern is“one superpower and few major powers”,the Asia Pacific re-gion is developing rapidly.4)The results of the temporal exponential random graph model show that there are reciprocity effect,hierarchical effects and time dependence effect in tour-ism service trade network.The level of economic development,population size,the border net-work,language network and free trade agreement network have positive promoting effects on tourism service trade relations.Additionally,compared to countries with high trade volumes,countries with lower trade volumes tend to engage in tourism service trade.

关 键 词：全球旅游服务贸易 旅游服务贸易网络 复杂网络分析 时间指数随机图模型 

分 类 号：F591.99[经济管理—旅游管理] F742[经济管理—产业经济]