大国无战争时代美国弱联盟体系与新型地区秩序竞争  

The Weak Alliance System of the U.S.and the New Type of Regional Order Competition in the Era of No-War-Among-Great Powers

作　　者：徐进[1,2] 薄荣康 XU Jin;BO Rong-kang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京102400 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第1期3-13,127,共12页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程重大项目(2023YZD049)。

摘　　要：在大国有战争时代,稳固的强联盟是霸权国增加实力、获得战争胜利从而以自身偏好塑造国际秩序的有效途径。大国无战争时代和内嵌型的对手特征增加了霸权国对弱联盟的使用偏好,核武器的出现、主权原则深入人心和经济相互依赖使得大国之间爆发战争变得异常困难,同时,作为霸权国的美国面对的竞争对手内嵌于其主导的国际秩序,中国与美国的亚太盟友有着紧密联系,因此弱联盟成为美国参与亚太地区规则秩序竞争的有效补充策略。弱联盟基于实用主义取向,可以基于不同议题不断重新选择小集团成员,更具灵活性塑造基于规则的秩序。美国构建的弱联盟是强联盟的有效补充,具备明显的大国竞争倾向,核心目标仍旧是全面遏制中国崛起,中国需要细致剖析美国在不同领域领导的小集团发展路径,从而加强精准施策,实行“楔子战略”,拉打结合,分化弱化美国反华联盟,为自身发展营造持久有利的周边环境。In the era of war-among-great powers,a stable strong alliance is an effective way for hegemonic powers to increase their strength,secure victory in wars,and shape the international order according to their own preferences.In an era of no-war-among-great powers,coupled with embedded characteristics of opponents,hegemonic powers prefer using weak alliances.The emergence of nuclear weapons,the deep-rooted principle of sovereignty,and economic interdependence have made war among great powers extremely difficult.At the same time,as a hegemonic power,the United States faces competitors who are embedded in the international order it leads.China has close ties with the United States'Asia-Pacific allies.Therefore,weak alliances have become an effective supplementary strategy for the United States to compete for a rules-based order in the Asia-Pacific region.Weak alliances,based on pragmatism,allow for the continuous reshuffling of small group members based on different issues,offering more flexibility in shaping a rule-based order.The weak alliances constructed by the United States effectively complement strong alliances and exhibit a clear tendency towards great power competition,with a core goal of comprehensively containing China's development.China needs to carefully analyze the development paths of U.S.-led small groups in different fields to strengthen precise policy implementation,implement the"wedge strategy,"combine engagement and containment,divide and weaken the U.S.-led anti-China alliance and create a lasting and favorable surrounding environment for its own development.

关 键 词：弱联盟 强联盟 大国无战争时代 地区秩序竞争 霸权国 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]