百年变局下东北亚地缘政治的新变化  

The New Changes in Geopolitics in Northeast Asia in an Era of Profound Changes Unseen in a Century

作　　者：巴殿君[1] 王振彬[2] BA Dian-jun;WANG Zhen-bin

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心 [2]吉林大学东北亚学院,长春130012

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第1期29-43,127,共16页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AGJ007)。

摘　　要：在百年未有之大变局的投射下,中国和平崛起面临严峻的外部挑战。作为大国力量的交汇点,东北亚地区始终是中国的重要战略支点,是中国营造良好的周边环境的关键。21世纪以来,美国外部干预对区域的稳定与合作的破坏不断加大、结构矛盾内生性与大国竞争外溢性凸显。当前,东北亚地区的地缘政治正面临新的变化。东北亚地缘政治安全环境复杂多变,美日韩打造的“二元范式”进一步凸显了区域内竞争性国家关系。东北亚地区内的国家关系互动经历了从经济驱动到政治驱动的变化。“自助+互助”模式中地区冷战趋势持续强化。总体而言,东北亚地缘政治格局的未来走向呈现三个主要特征:“后单极化”背景下权力的持续去集中化,“弱全球化”时代技术变革对地区力量平衡的深刻影响,国际体系约束的僵化性与竞争合作的并存。这对我国总体国家安全观提出了新的课题。如何在总体国家安全观视域下构建东北亚新安全发展格局,成为推动地区秩序良性发展的关键。In an era of profound changes unseen in a century,China's peaceful development faces significant external challenges.As a strategic convergence point for major powers,Northeast Asia remains a crucial strategic pivot for China and is essential in fostering a stable regional environment.Since the 21st century,the U.S.external interventions have increasingly undermined regional stability and cooperation,while structural contradictions within the region and the spillover effects of major power competition have become more pronounced.Currently,Northeast Asia's geopolitical landscape is undergoing new transformations.The region's complex and volatile security environment has been further intensified by the"binary paradigm"constructed by the U.S.,Japan,and South Korea,which accentuates competitive state relations within the region.Interactions among Northeast Asian countries have shifted from being economically driven to being politically driven.The trend of regional cold war has intensified under a"self-help+mutual assistance"model.Overall,the future trajectory of Northeast Asia's geopolitical landscape reveals three main characteristics:the continued decentralization of power in the"post-unipolarity"era,the profound impact of technological change on regional power balance in the era of"slowbalization,"and the coexistence of rigid international system constraints with competition and cooperation.These dynamics pose new challenges for China's holistic approach to national security.Constructing a new security and development framework for Northeast Asia,through the lens of China's holistic approach to national security,emerges as a crucial task for advancing positive regional order and stability.

关 键 词：东北亚 地缘政治 后单极化 弱全球化 总体国家安全观 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]