大国博弈下的亚太绿色产业竞合:主要特征、演化原因与未来趋势  

Asia-Pacific Green Industry Coopetition under Great Power Game:Key Features,Evolutionary Causes and Future Trends

作　　者：周亚敏[1] ZHOU Ya-min

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第1期84-99,128,共17页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(22FGJB001)。

摘　　要：《巴黎协定》下21世纪中叶全球实现净零排放的目标导向,促使各国加速推进国内绿色转型进程,因而绿色产业实力跃升为国家竞争优势的主要来源之一。亚太地区既是全球绿色转型的重点区域,也是大国战略博弈的焦点区域,域内绿色产业的竞争张力与合作聚力并存。美国及其盟伴将中国的绿色优势产业视为战略竞争对手的战略优势产业,以高补贴、高关税为手段实施边追赶、边遏制的策略,力求以“脱钩断链”方式打压中国的既有绿色竞争优势。亚太广大发展中国家则需要绿色产业合作,需要来自中国的优质绿色技术及应用能力的帮助。一方面,广泛部署绿色技术有助于这些国家以低成本实现碳中和;另一方面,在产业梯度转移规律驱动下,中国绿色产业链的发展将为周边国家创造嵌入先进产业链的历史机遇。亚太绿色产业合作符合域内发展中国家既追求减排又兼顾增长的根本诉求,而亚太绿色产业竞争由政治诉求驱动违背市场规律将大幅折损区域绿色转型效率。The Paris Agreement's goal of achieving net-zero emissions globally by the mid-21st century has prompted countries to accelerate domestic green transformation. As a result,the strength of the green industry has become one of the main sources of national competitive advantages. The Asia-Pacific region is not only a key region in the global green transformation but also a focal point for the strategic game among great powers,and the the strategic advantageous industries of competition and cooperation in the green industry coexist in the region. The U.S. and its allies regard China's green advantage industries as those of their strategic competitors,and therefore implement the strategy of high subsidies and high tariffs to both catch up with and contain these industries,aiming to suppress China's established green competitive advantages by means of "decoupling and breaking chains." Conversely,many developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region require green industry cooperation and need assistance from China in accessing highquality green technologies and application capabilities. On the one hand,the widespread deployment of green technologies will help these countries achieve carbon neutrality at a low cost;on the other hand,driven by the law of industrial gradient transfer,the development of China's green industry chains will create historical opportunities for neighboring countries to integrate into the advanced industrial chain. Asia-Pacific green industry cooperation is in line with the fundamental appeals of developing countries in the region to pursue both emission reduction and growth,while Asia-Pacific green industry competition driven by political appeals and contrary to the law of the market will significantly undermine the efficiency of regional green transformation.

关 键 词：碳中和 大国博弈 亚太 绿色产业链 竞合 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]