“中间地带”的消亡:北极安全空间的演进轨迹和变量探析  

The Disappearance of the "Intermediate Zone":An Analysis of the Evolution and Variables of Arctic Security Space

作　　者：赵隆[1] 李帆 ZHAO Long;LI Fan

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院国际战略与安全研究所,上海200233 [2]上海交通大学凯原法学院,上海200230

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第1期100-113,128,共15页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大专项(23VMG044);国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BGJ001)。

摘　　要：乌克兰危机导致大国竞争新常态加速向北极投射,竞争与对抗、遏制与反制成为多国战略的优先考量。北约完成“北扩”后,瑞典和芬兰无法作为“中间地带”维系北极国家共同的地理身份认同,也难以同步发挥“战略威慑”和“安全保证”功能。随着美俄竞争成为北极安全空间演变的主要驱动,重塑北约的“北极身份”,强化从黑海、波罗的海到北极海域的跨区域安全联动,以及建构“没有俄罗斯的北极”叙事构成主导国的行为逻辑和架构愿景。同时,北极“军备竞赛”的非对称结构,传统安全与非传统安全议程博弈态势和域外力量的对冲效应,依然扮演安全空间演变的调节变量。在此背景下,中国作为地缘上的“近北极国家”和北极事务的重要利益攸关方,需要与欧洲、亚洲域外利益攸关方一道,积极引领和推进北极气候、生态、环境和可持续发展议题,动态调整北极科研、商业项目的预期进度和风险预案,避免北极活动因政治安全因素脱离既定轨道。The Ukraine crisis has intensified the projection of great power competition into the Arctic,transforming the region into a strategic arena marked by rivalry,confrontation,containment,and countermeasures. With NATO's northern expansion,Sweden and Finland can no longer serve as an "intermediate zone" to preserve the Arctic's geographical identity,nor can they simultaneously fulfill functions of "strategic deterrence" and "security assurance." As U.S.-Russia competition becomes the main driver of the evolution of the Arctic security space,reshaping NATO's "Arctic identity," strengthening cross-regional security linkages from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea to the Arctic waters and constructing a narrative of an "Arctic without Russia" constitute the behavioral logic and structural vision of dominant countries. At the same time,the asymmetric nature of the Arctic "arms race," the tension between traditional and non-traditional security agendas,and the hedging strategies employed by external powers continue to play the role of regulatory variables in the evolution of the security space. In this evolving context,China,as a "near-Arctic state" and a key stakeholder in Arctic affairs,needs to actively lead and advance Arctic climate,ecological,environmental,and sustainable development issues alongside external stakeholders from Europe and Asia. This effort aims to break the deadlock in the "low politics" dialogue in the Arctic,dynamically adjust the expected progress and risk plans of Arctic research and commercial projects,and prevent Arctic activities from deviating from their established course due to political and security factors.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 北极安全空间 中间地带 美俄关系 利益攸关方 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]